Syria: Giving Peace a Chance
Yohannan
Chemarapally
DESPITE
the hostility of the armed Syrian
opposition and key western powers, the UN mandated
“Annan Peace Plan” for Syria
is still
on track, though in danger of being derailed. The
recent massacres have increased
call from the West and its allies in the region for
foreign military
intervention to facilitate regime change. Under the
Annan plan, a ceasefire was
agreed to by the Syrian government along with the
deployment of 300 UN
peacekeepers. This was to be followed by talks between
the government and the
opposition on Syria’s
political future. The Syrian government and most of
the internal opposition
agreed to the Annan peace plan but the opposition
groups based in Turkey and
France have virtually rejected the Annan plan,
describing it as unworkable and
a ploy by the government in Damascus to buy time. They
want the Annan mission
to fail hoping that this would lead to foreign
military intervention. Their
hopes seem to be misplaced. The head of the UN
Observers Mission in Syria, the
Norwegian Major General, Robert Mood told the media in
the first week of May
that “there was a good chance and opportunity” to
break the cycle of violence
that has continued for more than a year now.
In
the last week of April, the UN secretary
general, Ban Ki-moon, had struck a discordant note,
when he selectively blamed
the Syrian government for the widespread ceasefire
violations. The UN chief’s
comments had come immediately after suicide bombers
killed 10 people in Damascus. The
Syrian
government was infuriated by the timing of the
Secretary General’s comments.
The State-run media called the comments “outrageous”
and accused Ban of
willfully ignoring the “crimes and terrorist” acts
against Syria.
The UN
has estimated that more than 9000 Syrians have been
killed so far. The Syrian
vice foreign minister, Fayssal Mekdad, said that 6000
civilians have been
killed at the hands of the terrorist and armed
opposition groups. He revealed
that around 2000 civilians were killed in the
crossfire between the security
forces and the militants. “We regret that”, he said.
OPPOSITION
UPPING
THE ANTE
The
Syrian government has adhered to the
commitment given to Kofi Annan, the former UN
secretary general, on the
withdrawal of troops and heavy weaponry from the
trouble prone pockets in
cities like Homs, Hama
and Idlib. “We are committed to the
agreement”, the Syrian vice foreign minister
emphasised. The armed opposition,
with the encouragement of its foreign backers on the
other hand seems bent on
upping the ante by once again regrouping and staging
hit and run attacks,
including suicide bombings, in cities like Damascus
and Aleppo, hitherto
relatively unscathed by the
violence that has engulfed Syria.
Till
the end of April, the Syrian government has
reported more than a thousand instances of violations
of the ceasefire by the
armed opposition groups. The Syrian government had
made the mistake of allowing
the armed opposition fighters to regroup and reinforce
their bases in towns
like Homs, Idlib, Damascus
and Hama
when
the Arab League observers mission was in the country
late last year. This time,
the government looks determined to stop the militant
groups from once again
reinforcing pockets of resistance in a crowded urban
environment.
Senior
Syrian officials say that they have found
enough evidence to show that the Baba Amr suburb of Homs
was turned into a command and control
centre by the rebels, with the help of French, Turkish
and American officials.
According to Syrian officials, Turkey
had prepared camps to host Syrian political “refugees”
two months before the
crisis in Syria
erupted. “Armed groups forced families to leave for Turkey”,
said vice minister Mekdad.
The Obama administration has been openly supplying the
Syrian rebels with sophisticated
electronic surveillance and telecommunications
equipment. The Turks have been
providing most of the training while Saudi Arabia
and Qatar
are funneling in huge amounts of money. “The Qatarese
and the Saudis are
spending billions of dollars killing Syrians”, said
Mekdad. The articulate
Syrian diplomat recalled the recent role of Arab
League (AL) under the
chairmanship of Qatar
in the Syrian conflict. The AL Observers Mission under
the former Sudanese
military chief, Gen. Mohammed Ahmad al-Dabi, had
submitted a report that was
even handed. The report had apportioned blame to both
the sides for the
violence. But under Saudi and Qatari pressure, Dabi
was forced to resign and
the AL Observers Group report given a quite burial.
Instead
the Arab League along with its friends
in the West rushed Syria’s
case to the UN Security Council in a bid to re-enact
the Libyan regime change
scenario. It was the timely veto by Russia
and China
that prevented Syria
and the
region from disintegrating into more violence and
chaos. “The regional group
which was formed to foster Arab unity now wants to
destroy a fellow member. The
Arab League has been made into an instrument for
meddling into the affairs of
sovereign countries. They support the bombing of Syria”,
noted Mekdad. Now that Iraq
has taken over the rotating chairmanship of
the AL, Syria
expects a more evenhanded
approach. Though Syria
has
been suspended from the AL,
Mekdad reveals that his country has a lot of support
from many of the member
countries. Mekdad asserted that if Syria
“overcomes this crisis, there
will be major changes in the Arab world”.
CRIMINAL
ELEMENTS
GAINING
GROUND
Mekdad
listed the three groups that are
threatening the government. The first group consists
of al Qaeda and its
affiliates. The minister said that they are small in
number and have come from
outside and “they are lethal and determined”. The
second group comprises of the
Muslim Brothers and their supporters. “They don’t have
much support within Syria”,
the
vice minister observed. The third group consists of
drug smugglers and criminal
element. He said that around 70,000 people with
criminal records have been very
active. The first secretary of the Syrian Communist
Party (SCP), Hunein Numer,
told this correspondent that the influence of the
“political opposition” is
diminishing and ceding space to the “criminal
elements”. He
said that they are increasingly resorting
to “hit and run” terror tactics. “The government can’t
protect everybody”, conceded
Numer. The SCP along with a splinter communist party
is part of the national
coalition government.
Numer
said that the plan to make Syria “into another Libya”
has failed. Their first
plan, according to the veteran communist leader, was
to set up a liberated zone
along the border with Jordan
with foreign support, in an effort to replicate the “Benghazi”
scenario in Libya.
When this attempt failed, they shifted their base to
Latakia and Baniyas in
late 2011. A German ship fitted with electronic
intelligence gathering was
anchored off the coast to assist the rebels. When this
attempt too failed, the
armed groups shifted first to Idlib along the border
with Turkey
and then to Hama.
Their last throw of the dice was in the
Baba Amr suburb of Homs.
After the takeover of Baba Amr by the security forces
in late March, the rebels
now have no “command and control” centers. However,
according to Numer, around
10-15,000 armed fighters still remain inside the
country.
The
mountainous border with Lebanon
continues to be an area of concern but the Lebanese
armed forces have succeeded
in foiling large scale infiltration and arms
smuggling. In late April, the
Lebanese helped in capturing a boatload of fighters
and arms heading for the
Syrian coast. The government in Iraq
remains friendly but the long and sparsely populated
borders between the two
countries facilitates the infiltration of militant
Sunni groups, including al
Qaeda. Turkey
remains a strong backer of the so-called “Free Syrian
Army” based on its
territory.
There
have been misgivings within Turkey on the
confrontationist course adopted by
prime minister Tecip Erdogan towards Syria
and in the process abandoning
the “zero problems with neighbors” foreign policy
which had stood the country
in good stead for the last decade. Many Turkish
commentators have written that
the country should have positioned itself to play the
role of a mediator,
instead of becoming one of the chief protagonists in
the conflict in Syria.
Erdogan,
given his close relationship with Assad was uniquely
placed to play the role. The
Turkish prime minster had evidently miscalculated
thinking that the Syrian
leader would follow the leaders of Egypt,
Tunisia
and Libya
into the
dustbin of history. “Erdogan is trying to be the
leader of all Muslims, trying
to inspire revolutions”, observed Mekdad. He said that
Syria
was the
only country in the region which was not under the
influence of the West.
Mekdad blamed the West and its proxies for being
behind the turmoil sweeping
the Arab world. “Why
is it that former
colonial powers and the Gulf countries are supporting
the Muslim Brothers”, he
questioned. The Gulf monarchies, Mekdad pointed out
were also the strongest
supporters of the Taliban.
Syrian
officials continue to be confident that
the UN observers group, like the AL
observers mission before, would also report the true
situation prevailing on
the ground and the insidious role of the armed groups
operating with outside
support. The Syrian government has ensured that the UN
observers mission is not
dominated by peacekeepers from countries that have
been openly demanding regime
change. “The Annan plan will be supported on the basis
of national sovereignty
not because of outside influence”, the Syrian
information minister, Adnan
Mahmoud, remarked during his interaction with the
Indian media delegation.
Nemer,
the SCP leader, said that the success of
the Annan plan rests squarely on Washington.
“The US
knows that Syria
cannot be
defeated. It also knows that in case of any war, Israel
too will pay a heavy price”,
he said. The aim of the US
now
is to “weaken” Syria
and further undermine the “anti-imperialist” front. He
said that the US
has undermined the “war on terrorism” by
encouraging jihadists from Afghanistan
and elsewhere to come and fight inside Syria.
Among the Arab countries, Saudi Arabia is
outspending Qatar
to
bolster the faltering morale of the armed rebels.
Nemer said that the
opposition leaders based in Istanbul
have openly
said that they are spending $1 million every five days
to finance the
operations inside Syria
even as UN peace keepers try to maintain the peace.
“It is not only the Ba’ath
Party that is being targeted. It is Syria
as a State that has been
targeted. They want sectarian warfare”, said the SCP
leader.
ORDINARY
PEOPLE
BEING
TARGETED
In
the meantime, ordinary people are carrying on
with their lives although they now cast anxious
glances over their shoulders
these days while venturing out. The major cities of Damascus
and Aleppo
have
witnessed suicide bombings, increasing use of
improvised explosive devices
(IEDs) and targeting of senior officials and
sympathisers. Armed foreign
terrorist cells have been operating within Damascus
city proper. Foreign fighters
operating in a flat in the posh Mezze neighbourhood
were taken out after a
firefight by the Syrian security forces. Huge caches
of arms were found in a
basement shop of the building. The presence of the UN
peace keepers has not
deterred the armed groups or the opposition based
outside from carrying out
terror attacks targeting government buildings as well
as places frequented by
ordinary people.
The
governor of Damascus
province, Hossein Makhlouf, said
that the armed groups have not spared even ambulances
and fire engines. The
Syrian government has captured many Libyans, Turks and
fighters from other
countries who had infiltrated into the country. Bombs
have exploded in old Damascus, one of
the most
ancient inhabited areas in the world. Latest reports
suggest that the
historical sites of Palmyra
and Crac de Chevaliers have been infiltrated by armed
opposition fighters. The
government fears for the safety of the historical
monuments. However other
ancient and medieval historical sites dotting Syria
remain open.
The
sabotaging of gas pipelines by the armed
groups has had an adverse impact on the electricity
grid. People now have to go
hours without power. The deprecating Syrian currency
has also added to the
common man’s woes. Prices of basic necessities have
increased as unemployment
shows an upward spiral. The Syrian government’s
embrace of “neo-liberal” economic
policies in 2000 had already increased the gulf
between the rich and the poor.
The SCP chief admitted that “social problems have come
to the fore” and that
the Ba’ath Party did not comprehend the gravity of the
situation.
People's Democracy