People's Democracy

 

On Bihar Assembly Elections 2010

 

Sarvodaya Sarma

 

THE Bihar state committee of the CPI(M) reviewed the results of the assembly elections 2010 in its meeting at Patna on December 6-7. Polit Bureau member S R Pillai and Central Secretariat member Hannan Mollah attended from the centre. This preliminary review is to be followed by a detailed review of results by district, local and constituency level committees and concerned branches before the state secretariat and state committee meets again for a comprehensive and concrete analysis and necessary corrective measures.

 

The meeting noted that the CPI(M) tried to present an alternative based on Left unity and the Left parties tried to arrive at an adjustment of seats. There was complete adjustment of seats between the CPI(M) and the CPI, and joint campaign was conducted in Begusarai district and a few other constituencies. But despite their best efforts, the CPI(M) and the CPI could have only partial adjustment of seats with the CPI(ML). The CPI(M) and the CPI(ML) contested against each other in seven constituencies whereas the CPI and CPI(ML) clashed in 17 constituencies. Also, this partial adjustment of seats was reached quite late, when the election process had already begun. Except for a joint appeal and a joint press conference, there was no joint campaign and the message of Left unity could not be taken to the grassroots level. So we were unable to get advantage though the coming together of the Left sent a good message to the people. The experiences of Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura suggest that Left unity is a result of long-drawn class struggles and mass movements along with a common political agenda. Bihar has not been able to reach this stage.

 

However, the state committee was of the view that the decision to align with other Left parties was correct and the CPI(M) will continue to strengthen the Left unity in future as well. The landlord-bourgeois parties have not been able to solve the basic problems of the people; in fact the situation is going from bad to worse. Left unity alone can give a concrete alternative in the concrete situation of Bihar. In order to strength the democratic movement, the CPI(M) and other Left forces will have to present themselves as genuine opposition in Bihar.

 

ELECTION

RESULTS

The results of assembly elections were decidedly in favour of Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)-BJP combine and they got far more seats that than they had expected. The majority of 206 in a house of 243 is indeed a massive majority and there is little scope for parliamentary opposition in such a situation. The Laloo Prasad Yadav-led RJD-LJP combine could get only 22 and 3 seats respectively. Even the recognised leader of opposition needs the support of 10 per cent of seats in the assembly. So, with only 22 MLAs, RJD leader can only depend on the favour granted by the ruling parties. The former chief minister and leader of opposition, Mrs Rabari Devi, contested from two seats and convincingly lost both. The Congress was reduced to 4 from 9. The Left too suffered heavily, with only the CPI succeedingd on Bachchawara seat from Begusrarai where there was unity of the CPI(M) and CPI at the grassroots level. The CPI(M) could not save its lone seats of Bibhutipur (Samastipur). The CPI(ML) too failed to get a seat though it had 5 MLAs in the last assembly.

 

However, the victory of the JD(U)-BJP combine is not at all matched by the percentage of votes they obtained in these elections. The combine got 39.07 per cent votes as against 85 per cent of the seats. The JD(U) got 20.45 per cent votes and BJP 15.65 per cent in 2005 elections which increased marginally this time --- by 2.12 per cent votes for JD(U) and 0.84 per cent for BJP. But the JD(U) seats increased from 88 to 115 and the BJP seats 55 to 91. The alarming rise in the number of BJP MLAs in Bihar assembly will be a challenge for the secular forces. The BJP has gained more though the principal architect of the ruling combination is Nitish Kumar.

 

The RJD vote percentage has been reduced by 4.61 per cent to 18.84 per cent and LJP’s by 4.26 per cent to 6.74 per cent. Together, they lost about 9 per cent votes. In 2005, the RJD-LJP had 54 seats while now they have 25.

 

The Congress collected all the criminals and turncoats to contest all the 243 seats. It was able to increase its vote percentage for 6.09 to 8.37 per cent but its strength in the assembly got reduced to more than half.

Except the CPI(M), other Left parties lost in vote share by 0.95 per cent, as shown in Table I.    

 

                                         TABLE I

                                                                             

2005			2010
	Votes	Seats		Vote	Seats
CPI(M)	0.68	1		0.71	—
CPI	2.09	3		1.69	1
CPI(ML)	2.37	5		1.79	—
Total	5.14	9		4.19	1

                                                                            

                                                                                     

                                                                                               

 

The BSP got 3.2 per cent, SP 0.55 per cent and NCP 1.82 per cent, but they all failed to get a seat. The independents’ vote share increased by over 4 per cent and they got 6 seats for a 13 per cent vote share.

The strength of various political parties in the new assembly in terms of contesting candidates, seats won, polled votes and vote share is as shown in Table II.

 

TABLE II

Parties	Contested	Won	Total Votes	Per cent of Votes
JD (U)	141	115	65, 61,930	22.58
BJP	102	91	47, 75,501	16.49
RJD	168	22	54, 66,693	18.84
LJP	75	03	19, 57,232	6.74
Congress	243	04	24, 30,623	8.37
CPI	56	01	4, 90,815	1.69
CPI(M)	30	00	2, 06,601	0.71
CPI(ML)	106	00	5, 18,415	1.79
BSP	239	00	9, 29,428	3.21
NCP	171	00	5, 28,241	1.82
JMM	41	01	1, 76,400	0.61
Independents	1342	06		13.00

                                                                              

                                                                                                         

Among the Left parties, the CPI(ML) contested 106 seats, CPI 56 and CPI(M) only 30. The CPI(ML) clashed with the CPI(M) in 7 seats and polled fewer votes than the CPI(M) in 6 out of 7 seats. The CPI (ML) also clashed with the CPI in 17 seats but polled less votes than the CPI in 14 out of 17. The hollowness of the CPI(ML) claim was thus proved beyond doubt. It is reported that the CPI(ML) also carried out anti-Left campaign in various constituencies. Some of their leaders were overheard saying that they only wanted to defeat the CPI(M) or CPI candidates because this will enable than to have the Left space. The smaller Left parties, such as SUCI-C, AIFB-Subhash and MCPI contested 12 seats and secured only 14888 votes.

 

WOMEN’S

PARTICIPATION

The increased participation of women in this election was an important feature: 54.85 per cent of the women voted as against 50.77 per cent of the men. The average polling recorded was 52.71 per cent. In 2005, 47.03 male voters had participated as against 44.09 per cent female voters. Women voters outnumbered men in 23 out of 38 districts in Bihar. More than 60 per cent women voted in 9 districts. Some of the reasons are: reservation for women in panchayati raj institutions or in recruitments of teachers etc; girl’s uniform and bicycle scheme; welfare schemes for women.

The region-wise election results are as follows:

 

TABLE III

	Total	JD(U)	BJP	RJD	LJP	Congress	Left	Ind.
Tirhut	49	24	21	2	0	0	0	0
Saran	24	10	12	2	0	0	0	0
Mithilanchal	30	11	11	7	0	0	0	0
Koshi	13	10	01	2	0	0	0	0
Patna-Bhoj.	43	20	16	6	1	0	0	1
Magadh	26	16	08	1	0	0	0	1
Munger	22	14	05	1	0	0	1	2
Bhagalpur	12	06	04	1	0	0	0	0
Simanchal	24	04	13	0	2	3	0	2
Total	243	115	91	22	3	4	1	6

                                                          

 

The JD(U)-BJP gained substantially only after the first phases of elections as is evident from the fact that the RJD got 7 out of 30 seats in Mithilanchal and the fact that the JD(U)-BJP got only 4 and 13 seats out of a total 30 seats in Simanchal. The JD(U)-BJP leadership and mass base closed ranks, overcame their internal division and discord, and voted massively in favour of Nitish Kumar as soon of the chances of RJD-LJP appeared improving.

 

CONCERN FOR

LEFT UNITY

The CPI(M), CPI and CPI(ML) had adjustment of seats for the first time in Bihar during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. As the Jharkhand assembly elections approached, the CPI again went with the RJD. When the CPI(M) initiated talks for seats adjustment with the CPI for Bihar elections, they proposed an adjustment with the RJD also, which we rejected in the beginning itself. The CPI took a long time to decide to finally go with us. The CPI(ML) too took a long time to give up their sectarian line of going alone.

When the CAG reported against the Nitish government regarding the financial irregularity of 13,000 crore rupees, and the JD(U)-BJP assaulted the opposition members brutally in Bihar assembly and council, Left parties came together to launch a movement against it. In course of joint action, we initiated talks for seat adjustment for the coming elections. The Left parties took a long time to conclude the talks. The complete adjustments of the seats between the CPI(M) and CPI could be possible only when the central leadership prevailed. The dispute with the CPI(ML) continued as reported earlier. The electoral process had begun. So the Left unity remained formal and could not advance beyond a partial adjustment of seats, a joint appeal and a joint press conference.

 

The election results clearly show that Left forces are gradually declining in Bihar, which requires serious introspection. We have to launch struggles independently and jointly, build our organisation and raise the political consciousness of the people.

 

A new dimension was added by the Left during the elections. The questions of land reforms, bataidari laws, pro-people development, poverty alleviation and welfare schemes such as MGNREGA, food security, PDS, Indira Awas, etc were debated during the elections. All the major political parties were against taking pro-poor policies. The RJD took an anti-people stand on issues like land reforms, bataidari and reservation for women etc. But Bihar is undergoing a churning process today and people are looking for a radical alternative based on pro-people agenda.