People's Democracy
(Weekly Organ of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)
No.
26
June 28, 2009
|
Vol. XXXIII
No.
26 June 28, 2009 |
What Lok Sabha
Results Show
Ashok Dhawale
IN Maharashtra, the seats won by
the alliance of the
Indian National Congress (INC) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
in the
2009 Lok Sabha polls has increased by two --- while it was 23 in 2004
(this
included one seat won by the Republican Party of India, Athavale group
or
RPI-A), it has now gone up to 25. On the other hand, the seat tally of
the SS-BJP
combine has declined by five --- from 25 to 20. (See the table given
below.) But
the distinctive feature is that the vote share of the INC-NCP alliance
has declined
by 3.2 per cent whereas that of the SS-BJP combine declined by 7.5 per
cent. Though
the INC votes have declined by 4.2 per cent, its seats have increased
from 13
to 17. On the other hand, though the NCP votes have increased by one
per cent,
its seats have reduced from 9 to 8. The vote share of the Bharatiya
Janata
Party (BJP) has declined by 4.4 per cent and its seats from 13 to 9.
the Shiv
Sena (SS) votes have reduced by 3.1 per cent and its seats from 12 to
11.
THE RULING
COMBINE
The votes of the INC-NCP
combine, which is currently
ruling the state, have declined by 12.4 per cent in the last ten years.
This
reflects the growing discontent of the people with the anti-people
functioning
of the INC-NCP state government, which has been in power since 1999. It
has
been callous about issues like the suicides of thousands of debt-ridden
peasants, malnutrition-related deaths of children, load-shedding of
power, the
plight of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the collapse
of the public
distribution system (PDS), the problems of unorganised workers, growing
civic
misery, the commercialisation of education and health services, and the
rapidly
growing unemployment due to global recession.
At the root of this callousness
are the neo-liberal policies
the combine is pursuing. Had the central government of the United
Progressive
Alliance (UPA) not taken some steps like the loan-waiver for the
peasants and
the increase in minimum support price of some crops last year, the
decline in
INC-NCP votes would have been even sharper. The state government�s
implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA)
and the
Forest Rights Act has been so lacklustre that it is unlikely to have
derived
any benefit from these steps of the central government. The fear of a
comeback
to power of the communal BJP at the centre among large sections of
people, the
desire for political stability in the wake of the horrifying Mumbai
terrorist
attacks, and the unfolding global economic crisis also helped the
INC-NCP to an
extent.
The greatly heightened rivalry
between the INC and the
NCP affected both of them adversely this time. This rivalry was
aggravated by
the NCP move to project Sharad Pawar as prime minister and by the
poll-eve
dalliance of the NCP with the SS. In some seats, the NCP and INC put up
rebel
candidates against each other and, in some others, they tried to
sabotage each
other�s prospects. The blatant use of the Maratha reservation card
pushed other
castes away from the NCP. Infighting within the NCP also came to the
fore this
time, and this was compounded by bloated over-confidence. The NCP
suffered a
setback due to all these factors and got a drubbing even in its sugar
lobby
citadel of western
COMMUNAL
COMBINE
But the decline in votes of the
SS-BJP is more than
double that of the INC-NCP. Even if we discount the four per cent votes
won by
the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) from the 7.5 per cent decline of
the
SS-BJP, it still leaves a decline of 3.5 per cent.
There are four main reasons for
this decline. The
first is that the rabid communal propaganda led by the likes of
Narendra Modi
and Varun Gandhi was rejected by large sections of the people. While
the BJP�s election-in-charge
of
Two significant regional
features must be noted.
First, in the peasant suicide belt of western Vidarbha and in the large
cotton
belt of western Vidarbha, northern Marathwada and Khandesh, the ruling
INC-NCP
could win only two of the 14 seats, viz Wardha and Nandurbar; all the
rest went
to the SS-BJP. Secondly, in Raigad district where the peasants have
been
leading a sustained struggle against Mukesh Ambani�s proposed
10,000-hectare MahaMumbai
SEZ, both the seats went to the SS-BJP and the INC-NCP candidates were
defeated.
Recently, the Supreme Court has refused to give further extension to
Reliance
for land acquisition. In a referendum last year, 96 per cent peasants
voted
against giving their land to the Ambani SEZ.
The INC-NCP had a lead in 132
out of the 288 assembly
segments, while the SS-BJP had it in 130. Other parties had a lead in
the
remaining 26 assembly segments. This is an indication that the coming
assembly
elections in October 2009 will be keenly fought. The role of the MNS
and the Bahujan
Samaj Party (BSP), and the steps that the UPA central government takes
in the
next couple of months, will be important factors in deciding the
outcome.
MNS, BSP AND
REPUBLICAN GROUPS
Having broken away from the Shiv
Sena, the Maharashtra
Navnirman Sena led by Raj Thackeray fought Lok Sabha polls for the
first time
and contested 12 seats --- six in Mumbai, three in Thane and one each
in
Nashik, Pune and Aurangabad. The MNS secured nearly 16 lakh votes in
these 12
seats, which comes to 4.1 per cent. This was a result of the violent
regional
chauvinist campaign led by the MNS against the north Indians and of the
instigation given to the MNS by the INC-NCP regime. The MNS struck a
body blow
to the SS-BJP and it was responsible for the defeat of the SS-BJP and
the
victory of the INC-NCP in at least eight seats --- five in Mumbai, two
in Thane
and one in Nashik --- the MNS. The SS-BJP could not win even a single
seat in
its stronghold of Mumbai. The MNS helped the INC-NCP in two ways ---
firstly,
by eating into the SS-BJP votes and, secondly, by driving the
beleagured non-Maharashtrians
into voting for the INC-NCP combine.
It is necessary to consider this
factor seriously.
Thousands of educated Marathi youth have been attracted to the MNS and
most of
them are first-time voters. In a time of economic crisis and recession,
just as
the SS was born over four decades ago, so also the MNS has taken off by
giving
a divisive twist to the question of unemployment and by harping on the
Marathi
identity. Another common feature is that the state governments of the
Congress
party have successively supported both the SS and the MNS --- earlier
to strike
at the communists and now to strike at the SS itself. This will be a
big
challenge before the Left.
The BSP�s votes have increased
from 3.1 per cent to
4.8 per cent in the last five years. This time also, like the last
time, the
BSP contested most of the LS seats in the state. In the four seats of
Gadchiroli-Chimur, Wardha, Nagpur and Hingoli, it scored over one lakh
votes
each. Even so, in the first three seats in Vidarbha, the INC was
elected. It
was only in Hingoli that the SS won. Due to disillusionment with the
Republican
factions, BSP influence in the state is growing slowly but steadily.
But due to
its policy of going it alone and also due to its controversial policy
stands,
BSP advance is more likely to become an obstacle in the path of the
Left
forces.
All the three candidates of the
Republican factions
were defeated in these elections. In Shirdi and Amravati, Ramdas
Athavale and
Rajendra Gavai lost although they were supported by the INC-NCP. It is
clear
that sections in both the Congresses sabotaged their prospects. In
Akola,
Prakash Ambedkar stood second after the BJP, while the Congress was in
the third
place. In spite of having been invited to join the Left Democratic
Front (LDF),
Prakash Ambedkar refused to do so and, instead, put up his candidates
in both the
CPI(M) seats --- Dindori and Palghar. Now Jogendra Kavade, another RPI
leader,
has indicated that he might go with the SS-BJP in the assembly
elections. All
these developments are a pointer to the disarray and opportunism in the
Republican camp.
CASTE, RELIGION,
MONEY, MEDIA
The caste factor was used in
this election in a big
way. Before the elections, the NCP tried to take up the issue of
reservation
for the Maratha caste. This was aimed at achieving Maratha caste
consolidation
behind the NCP. But as saw above, it had a negative impact and drove
the other
castes away from the NCP. In Beed and Nashik, Marathas and others were
asked to
unite to defeat the OBC candidates of the BJP and NCP respectively. In
Pune,
open appeals were made to vote for the INC candidate because he was a
Brahmin.
In Shirdi, Amravati and Ramtek, all reserved SC seats, the SS led a
campaign
that a Hindu Dalit was better than a Neo-Buddhist Dalit. Reactionary
forces
also raised the demand of abrogating the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities
Act. It
is a serious matter that such tendencies are gaining strength in the
land of such
champions of the anti-caste struggle as Jyotiba Phule and Dr B R
Ambedkar.
The overwhelming majority of
votes of religious
minorities were cast in favour of the INC-NCP. This was the case in
most parts
of the country as well. It was a result of the media propaganda that
the BJP is
also in the race to form the next government at the centre. It was also
a
direct result of the rallies that Narendra Modi addressed in
Maharashtra. The
crackdown on the Hindutva-oriented perpetrators of the Malegaon bomb
blasts
also had an impact. Finally, the Mumbai terrorist attacks led Muslims
to seek
the �safe haven� of the Congress. Sangh Parivar attacks in Kandhamal
and
elsewhere drove the Christian minorities to the Congress.
Money played an unprecedented
role in this election.
The established bourgeois parties literally poured crores of rupees in
each Lok
Sabha seat --- notwithstanding the economic crisis and the recession.
Earlier, in
each locality, money used to be given to some influential people who
could bring
the votes. Now giving money directly to the voters themselves is
becoming an
even more pernicious practice.
The same is the case with the
mainstream media. The
campaign of the Left candidates was almost blacked out in large
sections of the
press. �Paid news� during election time is becoming the norm in even
established newspapers in Maharashtra. Crores of rupees are spent by
the main
bourgeois parties in advertisements in the print and electronic media.
The Left
is thus automatically blanked out in most of the states.
LEFT DEMOCRATIC
FRONT
The Communist Party of India
(Marxist) took the
initiative to bring the non-INC-NCP and non-SS-BJP parties together in
Maharashtra. It was decided to constitute a Left Democratic Front that
would
contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. This
front
comprised the CPI(M), Communist Party of India (CPI), Peasants and
Workers
Party (PWP), Janata Dal (Secular), Socialist Front (SF), Samajwadi Jan
Parishad
(SJP) and the Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS). The Satyashodhak
Communist
Party (SCP) was included later. The Bharatiya Republican Party (BRP)
led by
Prakash Ambedkar was invited to join, but it did not.
This front contested 12 Lok
Sabha seats and supported two
independents in Kolhapur and Nagpur. The break-up was as follows:
CPI(M) � two,
CPI � three, JD(S) � four, SSS � one, SJP � one, SF � one.
Raju Shetty of the SSS was
elected from the
Hatkanangale seat in Kolhapur district and Sadashivrao Mandlik, sitting
MP and
NCP rebel, was elected from the Kolhapur seat. Raju Shetty has led
consistent
struggles of sugarcane farmers and was elected MLA in 2004. Sections of
the INC
also supported both Shetty and Mandlik to put down the NCP in both
seats. All LDF
parties in Kolhapur district worked wholeheartedly for the success of
both
these candidates. However, Mandlik later announced his support to the
UPA
regime, but Raju Shetty has refused to do so.
The LDF performance in the other
seats was disappointing.
The CPI(M) secured 1,97,576 votes in the two seats together, a
performance that
was better than that of the rest. The CPI got 42,450, JD(S) got 76,205
(of
these 72,738 were in one seat of Dhule) and the others got miniscule
votes. The
LDF did not come forth as a credible force.
The CPI(M) state committee was
fully aware of the
inbuilt limitations of the LDF. The party has been having electoral
alliances
with most of these parties for the last three decades and from time to
time
there had been joint struggles on issues like Enron. But most of these
parties
are now in a state of decline. Due to certain objective factors beyond
the
CPI(M)�s control, no effective joint agitations were possible in the
recent
past.
The last point to note is that
in the 1999 LS
election, the non-INC-NCP-SS-BJP parties had 10.7 per cent of the votes
in the
state. In 2009, the total votes of the other parties had climbed to
25.9 per
cent, marking an increase of over 15 per cent. This shows that the four
main
parties are gradually losing their vote share and political space is
opening up
for an alternative. But the crux of the matter is that the Left and
secular
forces must strive to occupy this space by taking the lead in militant
joint mass
struggles.
THE CPI(M)�S
PERFORMANCE
The CPI(M) fought the Dindori
(ST) seat in Nashik
district and the Palghar (ST) seat in Thane district. The party led a
robust
and united campaign in both these constituencies. Thousands of party
and mass
organisation activists from Nashik, Thane and Mumbai districts worked
day and
night for the success of the party�s candidates. Compared to the 2004
result of
the old Malegaon and Dahanu Lok Sabha seats that we fought, the 2009
result
shows the following.
Dindori: The total valid votes cast here
in 2004 were 5,90,772.
In 2009, they increased by 90,858 to 6,81,630. In 2004 the CPI(M) had
got
1,13,436 votes, i.e. 19.20 per cent of the total. In 2009 it got
1,05,352
votes, which was 15.46 per cent. There
is thus a decline of 3.74 per cent. Earlier, the party had secured
63,594 votes
in 1998 and 69,142 votes in 1999.
In 2009, the CPI(M) had a clear
lead in the Kalvan
assembly segment of 11,640 votes over its nearest rival, the BJP. In
Surgana
tehsil it had about 36,000 votes and a big lead, while in the Kalvan
tehsil it
had around 13,000 votes. In the Kalvan assembly segment the position is
like
this: CPI(M) � 49,164, BJP � 37,524, NCP � 28,034. In 2004, in the
Surgana
assembly segment the CPI(M) had a lead of 14,968 over the BJP.
In 2009, in the two assembly
segments of Kalvan and
Dindori --- where the CPI(M) has its main base in the four tehsils of
Surgana,
Peth, Kalvan and Dindori --- it secured a total of 77,827 votes. But in
these
two segments taken together, the NCP has 90,644 votes and the BJP has
82,419
votes. The CPI(M) came third. In 2004, it had 83,265 votes in the two
segments
of Surgana and Dindori. But in the delimitation the Tryambakeshwar
tehsil where
it has a good mass base, was replaced by Kalvan tehsil where the party
is
comparatively weak.
The earlier two assembly
segments of Malegaon and
Dabhadi have been removed and have been replaced by the two new
assembly
segments of Niphad and Yeola. Instead of the 14,647 votes that the
CPI(M) got
in Malegaon and Dabhadi, it now had 10,282 votes in Niphad and Yeola.
In the
other two assembly segments of Chandwad and Nandgaon, its votes have
increased
from 15,474 to 17,239.
Palghar: The total valid votes cast in
2004 were 6,83,353. In
2009 they increased by 49,234 to 7,32,587. In 2004 the party had got
1,18,090
votes, which was 17.28 per cent. In 2009
it got 92,224 votes, which was 12.59 per cent. There is thus a decline
of 4.69
per cent. Earlier, it had secured 1,03,109 votes in 1998 and 89,459
votes in
1999.
In 2009, the CPI(M) had a big
lead in the Dahanu
assembly segment of 29,015 votes over its nearest rival, the INC. In
both the
Talasari and Dahanu tehsils which fall in this segment, it had a lead
over all its
rivals. In Talasari tehsil it secured 31,599 votes which mark an
increase of
4,500 over 2004. In Dahanu tehsil it had 23,699 votes which also mark
an
increase of 3,500. In the Dahanu assembly segment the position is:
CPI(M) �
55,298, INC � 26,283, BJP � 24,667, BVA � 11,631. In 2004, in the
Jawhar
assembly segment, it had a lead of 17,823 over the BJP.
In 2009, in the two assembly
segments of Dahanu and
Vikramgad where the CPI(M) has its main base in the five tehsils of
Talasari,
Dahanu, Vikramgad, Jawhar and Mokhada, it secured a total of 74,988
votes. In
these two segments taken together, the BJP has 71,129, the INC 49,901
and the
BVA 32,529 votes. Thus, here also, the CPI(M) had the lead. In 2004, it
had
64,894 votes in the two segments of Jawhar and Dahanu, which cover
almost the
same area. Thus the votes of the party in its main base area have
increased by
10,094. In the Vikramgad assembly segment also, its votes have
increased by
4,000. Here in the Vikramgad and Jawhar tehsils, it stood second, but
stood
fourth in Mokhada and Wada (one small part) tehsils.
The Palghar seat has been
severely affected by the
delimitation process. This is because as many as four of the six
assembly
segments --- Wada, Shahapur, Bhiwandi and Igatpuri --- have been
replaced by
Boisar, Palghar, Vasai and Nalasopara. What is worse, the last two are
predominantly urban areas. In all these new segments, the CPI(M)�s work
is
extremely limited and of a primary nature. In the earlier four
segments, it had
secured 53,192 votes in 2004. Now in the new four segments it got only
17,233.
That is the main reason for the decline in its vote in 2009 compared to
2004.
CONCLUSIONS
AND TASKS
Though the CPI(M) aimed to get
about 1,50,000 votes each
in these two seats, this aim could not be achieved. It was able to
maintain its
base and slightly increase it in some places in both the seats. But it
was not
able to extend its influence in a big way.
One reason for this is that the
nationwide political
situation too had its impact on both these constituencies. The credit
for some
of the pro-people steps taken by the UPA regime under Left pressure,
like the
Forest Rights Act, NREGA, peasant loan-waiver etc, did not accrue to
the Left
in most parts of the country. We tried to take the issue of the nuclear
deal
and related anti-imperialist aspects to the people to some extent, but
it could
not reach the common people effectively. In the USA itself, the end of
the
George Bush regime and the ascension of Barak Obama blunted the
anti-imperialist edge in the minds of large sections of the people.
People did
not see the third front, that we were trying to build at the national
level, as
a viable proposition. Some of the
developments in West Bengal and Kerala also had a negative impact. For
these
and other reasons the Left parties faced a grave setback in most parts
of the
country and this was reflected in the CPI(M) seats in Maharashtra as
well.
The LDF parties that helped it
in either or both
seats, had either an insignificant mass base of their own or their
earlier mass
base had withered away over the years. Thus their help did not
translate into
any significant increase in votes. Almost all the votes the CPI(M) got
in both
these seats were on the basis of its own independent strength and
influence. One
may draw two conclusions from this. One, increasing the independent
strength
and influence of the party is a must in the days ahead. Two, the LDF
should be
not merely an electoral front but also a front for joint struggles.
In both Thane and Nashik
districts, the CPI(M)�s image
has long been that it is a party of the Adivasis only. The non-Adivasi
voters generally
do not identify with it and vote for the bourgeois parties. At the same
time,
due to its limited reach, a large section of Adivasis too is outside
its fold.
There is also another trend of educated Adivasi youth not being much
attracted
to the CPI(M). Serious attention has to be paid to remedying all these
aspects
in the future.
Some organisational weaknesses
with regard to election
technique also resulted in significant reduction in the party�s votes.
Lack of
polling booth committees, not checking the voter lists properly, lack
of
identity proof of its voters, failure to get migrant tribal voters to
come back
and cast their votes --- these were the prominent lapses.
On the question of the influence
of caste in elections
and on the issue of regional chauvinism, more clarity is necessary to
give the
party work a concrete and proper direction. Hence the state secretariat
must
prepare notes for discussion in the state committee.
The immediate political
challenge before the party in
Maharashtra is that of the state assembly elections that are due in
October
2009. The CPI(M) state committee has to finalise the assembly seats
that the
party intends to fight and must begin work in right earnest to ensure
that it increases
its strength and influence in this battle.
Finally, it must be remembered
that for a party like the
CPI(M), which has to necessarily swim against the current, success in
any
election can come only by working hard for it --- not just for a few
months but
for years in advance. These election results underline the need to
increase the
party�s mass struggles manifold, run sustained political campaigns,
activate
the mass organisations, increase the number and quality of wholetimers,
organise
regular political classes, increase the sale of party papers and party
literature, enhance the capacity for fund collection, build close
relations
with friendly parties and groups, increase social relations with the
people and,
above all, consolidate and expand the party organisation at all levels.
Concrete
planning towards this end has to be conceived and implemented at all
levels to
consolidate the party where it exists and to expand it where it does
not. This
is the only way to achieve an advance of the party in Maharashtra.
Performance
of the Four Main Parties
PARTY
1999 LS
2004 LS
2009 LS
Seats Won Vote %
Seats Won Vote %
Seats Won Vote %
INC
10
29.7 13
23.8
17
19.6
NCP
6
21.6
9
18.3
8
19.3
INC+NCP
16
51.3
22
42.1
25
38.9
BJP
13
21.2
13
22.6
9
18.2
SS
15
16.8
12 20.1
11
17.0
BJP+SS
28
38.0
25 42.7
20 35.2
OTHERS
4
10.7
1
15.2
3
25.9
Note: In the 1999 LS
elections, the INC and NCP had fought separately.
