People's DemocracyPAKISTAN
Naresh Nadeem
POETRY LOVERS over there are fondly reciting a couplet by Habib Jalib, revolutionary poet who all the three dictators before his death threw into prison at one time or another. The lines are ---
Tum se pehle woh jo ik shakhs yahañ takht-nasheeñ tha
Usko bhi apne khuda hone ka itna hi yaqeeñ tha
(The person who was in the throne here before you,
was as much sure (as you are) of being the god.)
One cannot miss the force with which these lines describe the recent change in Pakistan, more than twelve years after the poet's death.
POSITIVE FEATURES
THIS was, however, not unexpected for Pakistan watchers. The people of Pakistan had already given an inkling of their mood ever since Musharraf sacked the chief justice in March last year and more so after he imposed the Emergency on November 3. Not a day since then passed without various sections registering their protest in one or another part of the country. It is another thing that there was no organised political force in the field to channelise this protest; otherwise the outcome could presumably have been more dramatic. While late Mrs Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were in exile for most part of this period, their followers within the country trailed more behind the mass mood, instead of leading the protesters.
It is thus that the people's February 18 verdict devolves all the more responsibility on the mainstream political parties, and the hope is that the latter would not ditch them midway in their life and death struggle against the military's authoritarian powers. The verdict has given these parties and other forces in Pakistan a historic chance to restore democracy on a more or less solid footing.
Without any shred of doubt, these elections gave the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) the mandate to form a coalition government at the centre. On the other hand, pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-e-Azam) (PML-Q) has suffered a serious jolt, and is not even in a position to engage in behind-the-scene manipulations, as many apprehended before the elections. The mass mood had already belied the widespread (and not unfounded) fears about poll rigging.
Provincial assembly results are also stunning and anti-Musharraf parties are set to form governments in three out of four provinces --- singly in Sindh or in coalition in Punjab and NWFA.
As for the people's participation in the polls, the nearly 40 percent voting is no mean thing in view of the widely prevalent atmosphere of fear there. We must not forget that a few times it has been only around 45 percent in an established democracy like India while it has often been 35 percent or below in George Bush's paradise of democracy.
CLEAR VERDICT
GIVEN alongside, Tables 1, 2 and 3 show the total number of seats in the National Assembly (lower house of Majlis-e-Shoora), the total numbers in four provincial assemblies, and the number of seats won by major parties at the two levels.
But these tallies may undergo changes as the constitution allows the winning independents to join any party of their choice within three days of the poll results' publication in official gazette. Thus we can have the final picture only after the assemblies are duly constituted, but clearly the change will be more to the benefit of major parties.
Further, the country has a provision of seat reservation for women and religious minorities at both levels, and these reserved seats are not put to contest. The idea is that, given the nature of society in Pakistan, women cannot win a seat in the country on their own. Thus, while 272 out of the 342 National Assembly seats are general seats, 60 are reserved for women and 10 for minorities. (On February 18, only 268 general seats went to the polls; the rest 4 were countermanded because of the death or murder of contestants.) However, the president has no power to nominate anyone to the reserved seats. In its stead, they are distributed among various parties in the ratio of the general seats they have got (won + independents joining them) and it is the prerogative of these parties to propose names for these seats.
(While provinces have their shares fixed in the women's 60 seats in National Assembly, nominations to the 10 minority seats are made at the national level.)
Therefore, it is estimated that when the new National Assembly is duly constituted, the PPP will have 22 women and 3 minority members in it, besides the 89 won in the general category. Similarly, the PML(N) will get an additional 16 and 3, PML(Q) 11 and 2, ANP 3 and 1, and MQM 5 and 1, while others will get 3 seats in the women's quota. Similar allotments will be made in provincial assemblies also.
POSITIVE FEATURES
THESE figures make clear the gains the PPP and PML(N) have made from the anti-establishment mass mood in Pakistan. While the PPP had 81 members in the outgone National Assembly, it will have an estimated 114 now. The gain is still more dramatic in case of PML(N) --- from 19 to 85. The PML(Q) has, on the other hand, come down from 126 to 55. This indicates that the PPP could possibly have gained more if it had adopted a more unambiguous position vis-à-vis the military regime. Those wondering as to why the pro-Benazir sympathy could not enable the PPP to sweep the polls, forget one point --- it was widely feared before the Benazir assassination that the PPP would more or less suffer because of its bonhomie with the regime. The PPP gain is thus no small thing.
As for the military regime, one cannot but note that mass anger has rolled in dust the heads of as many as 26 ministers. These include PML(Q) chairman and former prime minister Chaudhary Shuja'at Hussain, flamboyant railway minister (earlier information minister) Sheikh Rashid who fled to Spain soon after the results were out, high-profile foreign affairs minister Khurshid Mehmood Qasuri, parliamentary affairs minister Sher Afgan Niazi, late dictator Ziaul-Haque's son and religious affairs minister Aijazul-Haque, defence minister Rao Sikandar Iqbal, water resources minister Liaqat Jatoi, and National Assembly speaker Chaudhary Amir Hussain. So has lost the law minister Wasi Zafar who contested as an independent after the PML(Q) denied him a ticket in view of his notorious, publicly uttered threat to a TV journalist in vulgar language.
Another noteworthy case is of Pervez Ilahi, former Punjab chief minister and younger brother of Chaudhary Shuja'at. This scion of a big landlord family could enter the Punjab assembly only from one out of the four seats he contested. Chaudhary Shuja'at's elder brother had boasted that he would win his National Assembly seat without campaigning. Instead, he lost.
These rolling heads have perhaps just one parallel in recent period --- the defeat of a long line of BJP/NDA ministers in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls in India.
Though we still lack detailed disaggregated data, indication is that a good number of luminaries of the most powerful class of Pakistan --- the landlord class --- have also bitten dust. These include two members of the Jatoi family, the biggest landlords in the country. A funny case is of notorious party hopper Begam Abida Hussain who has so far contested from eight parties. This time she contested on a PPP ticket but lost, and that too in Sindh, her home province.
Though no definite conclusion can be drawn in this regard, one recalls that landlords have been the most loyal supporters of Musharraf regime. That they have been (and are) there in all the mainstream parties, only adds to their strength, but does not alter the reality that they have been the main prop of all dictatorial regimes so far, and also of fundamentalism. To date, they control entire life in rural areas and the country's future depends on whether the new government is able to curb their power to any significant extent, if not break it altogether.
SETBACK TO FUNDAMENTALISTS
BESIDES the setback administered to the regime, another and no less significant feature of the recent verdict is that the people have administered a big setback to the fundamentalists. As Table 3 shows, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) --- a loose conglomerate of six fundamentalist outfits --- has lost its stronghold, the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). The outfit has won only 6 general seats in National Assembly, a sharp fall from the earlier 63. In NWFP assembly, it has got here only 8 general seats in a house of 124, while it had singly formed a government here after the October 2002 polls.
In Balochistan, the MMA was in a coalition government with the PML(Q) --- in a quid pro quo for its promise to support the Legal Framework Order justifying General Musharraf's dyarchy, so to say. This was what led the wags to expand the MMA to Mullah Military Alliance and the observers to conclude that the rise in MMA's strength was partly due to its backing by the regime. But its fall now to a measly 6 out of 51 general seats in a 65 member house has rendered it quite pitiable there. The fact is that, even if they join hands, the PML(Q) and MMA cannot form a government here without enticing the small regional outfits.
The case of NWFP is particularly noteworthy. Defamed (courtesy media) as the hotbed of extremism and terrorism, the province has given the Awami National Party (ANP), a secular and democratic force, 10 general seats in National Assembly where it had none after 2002. The party has promised to extend support to a PPP-PML(N) government in Islamabad, hoping that PPP would help it form a government in Peshawar as it is the single largest party in NWFP. For its support to a PPP-PML(N) government at the centre, the ANP has put forward three demands. These are --- genuine provincial autonomy including financial autonomy for accelerated development of this extremely backward province, a redefinition of the "war on terror" so that it incorporates the ANP's viewpoint and its operation on the ground does not harass the peace-loving tribal people, and a change of the province's name from the colonial NWFP to Pakhtunkhwa, Pakhtunistan or Afghania. These are sensible demands and one hopes that the new central government would accept them in deed. This is all the more necessary to prevent a re-rise of extremism.
But more important than quantitative aspect is the qualitative aspect of MMA's setback. So far, the fundamentalist forces it represents have been trying their all to pose as an icon of anti-Americanism in this region. This posed a real danger that the people's anger against Yankees could be diverted to negative or even fratricidal uses and this was what worried all the well-meaning persons in Pakistan. But the recent verdict does indicate that the people were aware of this danger and have taken due care of it.
The main loser is Maulana Fazlur-Rehman, chief of the Jamiatul-Ulema Islami that was the biggest constituent of the (now virtually dead) MMA.
FUTURE SCENARIO
THE direction of the soon-to-be-formed government in the coming days is clear. The prime ministerial candidate is almost decided and the PML(N) and PPP have agreed to back each other's major demands --- reinstatement of the pre-Emergency judiciary and a UN supervised probe into Benazir murder. Both parties have also agreed on suitably amending constitutional provisions that empower the president to dissolve the National Assembly or dismiss an elected government. This is understandable; both parties have lost governments because of the president's authoritarian powers.
The demand of reinstatement of the dismissed judiciary may be a tricky one, as it may nullify all the steps the Musharraf regime took after November 3. Yet the general hope is that the president would not take any confrontation with the legislature on this issue, more so because the demand has the backing of a large part of the population.
In the meantime, rumour is that the still functioning interim government may ask the elected legislators to take oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order promulgated by Musharraf after November 3. Whether any such stipulation would get acceptance from most of the parties is, however, doubtful as it threatens to annul the 1973 constitution altogether. The parties have already raised the objection that no parliament had endorsed the Provisional Constitutional Order, hence the latter lacks legitimacy and thus there is no question of taking oath under it.
Further, the situation right now is that a two-third majority will be eluding the ruling coalition in National Assembly even if the MQM extends it support while, in the 100 member Senate, the PPP, PML(N), ANP and MQM have only 11, 4, 2 and 6 members respectively. The numbers, thus, rule out any move to impeach the president. Yet the coalition can certainly get passed some constitutional amendments that do not require a two-thirds vote. It is now up to the mainstream parties to make the maximum possible use of the new opening the people have created and make a steady move to restore and strengthen democracy in the country.
NAKED US INTERFERENCE
HOWEVER, the coming government will have to face several obstacles the US and its imperialist allies may create from time to time in the way of the country's march towards democracy. Yankees have made clear that they would not like Musharraf to be dismissed. The US government says it would review its aid policy vis-à-vis Pakistan, and the purport of this threat is more than clear. On the other hand, a leading financial daily of Pakistan, the Karachi based Business Recorder has reported that the Saudi government says it may stop oil supply to Pakistan on a deferred payment basis --- an arrangement that was till now working quite smoothly. It is now being surmised that, coming at a critical juncture in the country's history, this overture has been made under US pressure and is part of the moves to make the coming government fall in line.
The Bush administration has not been confined to verbal threats only, and its managers have been meeting the PPP and PML(N) leaders to force them to give up some of their intended moves. According to The Independent (February 21), the US tried to pressurise the leaders to drop the demand of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary's return. According to the paper, the fear is that confrontation on this issue may snowball to the extent that the US imperialists' blue-eyed Musharraf is forced to quit. On February 20, Lahore based US Consul General spent two hours with the lawyers movement leader Aitzaz Ahsan for the same purpose.
Also, according to the News International (February 21), "although Zardari did not talk of Washington's pressures, sources in the party confirmed that the Americans had brought tremendous pressure on the PPP co-chairperson to make a coalition government with the likes of the PML(Q) and MQM but not with the PML(N)."
Several US lawmakers including Senators John Kerry (a former presidential candidate), Joseph Biden and Chuck Hagel also met the PPP leaders in a bid to micro-manage the post-election scenario. Anne W Patterson, US ambassador to Pakistan, had earlier doled out the veiled threat that any move to oust Musharraf may cost the country dearly.
The same Patterson met Nawaz Sharif in a closed-door meeting on February 25, for the first time after the poll results were out. Though the ambassador's ostensible aim was to refute the allegation of US meddling in Pakistan's internal affairs, available information says she tried to drive a wedge between the PPP and PML(N).
It is not without reason that, as per a recent opinion poll, the US's acceptability rating in Pakistan has plummeted to just 16 percent and a section is now demanding that Patterson be told to quit the country. It was in this context that The New York Times and some other voices of US monopolies have advised the Bush administration to sever ties with the much-disliked dictator, fearing that the current, quite naked interference by the Bush & Coterie may "backfire."
Developments in the coming days would thus require constant vigil on part of the people of Pakistan while political observers too cannot take for granted any conclusion they have so far arrived at.
---- February 25, 2008
