People's Democracy

Nuclear Deal: Time For Reckoning

By Political Commentator

THE Indo-US nuclear deal continues to occupy the political centrestage. The developments in the last fortnight have reached a stage where the Congress leadership cannot avoid taking a final decision on whether the government should proceed to take the next step to operationalise the deal. The safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency will have to be negotiated before going to the Nuclear Suppliers Group to get their clearance which in turn will lead to the final step of the US Congress deciding on the approval for the bilateral agreement.

The CPI(M) and the Left parties have consistently maintained that the government should not proceed further with the next step at the IAEA. Doing so would mean disregarding the widespread objections to the nuclear deal and ignoring the fact that a majority in parliament are against the agreement. The CPI(M) Central Committee met in Kolkata from September 29 to October 1. The Central Committee made three points regarding the nuclear deal.

Firstly, the Central Committee reiterated the stand adopted unanimously in its August 22-23 meeting which asked the government not to proceed with the next step of negotiating the text of a safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

Secondly, the Central Committee wanted the UPA-Left Committee on the nuclear issue to examine the various aspects of the Hyde Act and its implications for foreign policy and security related matters.

Thirdly, the Central Committee asked the government not to proceed further on the next steps regarding the nuclear deal till it can be discussed in the Winter Session of parliament.

Since then, the UPA-Left Committee to discuss the nuclear issue met on October 5 and again on October 9. In both these meetings discussions on the implications of the Hyde Act for the 123 agreement and for self reliant development of the nuclear sector were held. In the 9th October meeting which was the fourth in the series, the impact of the nuclear deal on foreign policy was taken up for discussion.

On the eve of the October 9 meeting, the electronic and print media went into a frenzied bout of prediction that the fall of the government is imminent and early elections inevitable.

These speculations were sparked by the report that the CPI(M) and the Left parties had rejected the “compromise formula” suggested by the Congress leadership. The Congress side had proposed that the government be allowed to negotiate the text of the safeguards agreement with the IAEA, after which the text would be shown to the Left parties. If they had any objections the text would not be put to the Board of the IAEA for approval till the matters were cleared up. This would have meant, in effect, that the text of the safeguards agreement would be negotiated with the IAEA, making it possible for the next step for the operationalisation of the agreement. The Left parties have correctly rejected any move to hold talks with the IAEA at this stage.

By October 22, the Congress leadership would have to decide whether it should disregard the Left’s objections and go ahead with the deal and face the possible consequences. This may entail not only the fall of the government but also a premature end to the deal itself. The Left parties have made it clear that they have no interest whatsoever in forcing a mid-term poll.

The Congress party will also have to decide what to tell the people in such an eventuality. Why did they have to sacrifice the government at the altar of the nuclear deal with the United States? They would have to explain, why in fulfilling a commitment made to President Bush they have had to plunge the country into a mid-term poll?

This is a prospect which is causing legitimate apprehensions among its partners in the UPA. The vague promise of nuclear generated electricity in the not so foreseeable future is something intangible when it comes to elections.

Further, the Congress party would have the burden of justifying the break-up of a coalition government on an issue which is not even endorsed by the Common Minimum Programme i.e. the strategic alliance with the United States. All these factors have to be taken into account by the Congress leadership before arriving at a decision.

In the meantime, the UPA government continues to act out its part as a special partner of the United States. A meeting of the US-Indo CEO Forum was held in New York on September 24-25. This is a forum consisting of 10 top CEOs from the American side and 10 from the Indian side. In attendance were the Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram, the Commerce Minister, Shri Kamal Nath and ofcourse the Dy. Chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia. One may ask why three leading members of the government were in attendance at a meeting of private sector CEOs? This is not just official patronage of the bosses of the corporate sector of the two countries, but placing the government of India at their disposal.

This episode highlights what is wrong with the burgeoning strategic alliance with the United States.