People's Democracy

EDITORIAL

Gas Pipelines, Foreign Policy And National Interest

THE UPA government recently took the decision to join the US-sponsored Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) pipeline project. The CPI(M) had criticised  this decision stating that the Manmohan Singh government is giving priority to US strategic interests and sidelining the Iran pipeline project which is more suited for our energy requirements. The pro-US lobby in India immediately branded this stance as pro-Iran and has purveyed a number of explanations why the TAP project is beneficial to India. 

The TAP project is uncertain and illusory. There are serious doubts about the availability of gas in the long-term for such a project.  In April 2003, Russia signed a long-term contract with Turkmenistan for purchase and transportation of all its gas for a 25-year period.  In another contract Turkmenistan signed with China in April this year, it has agreed to supply 40 BCM of gas annually to China. Thus, Turkmenistan has no exportable surplus of gas. This is common knowledge and the officials of the petroleum ministry and the external affairs ministry should be aware of this. 

As against this, Iran has abundant reserves of gas. If the Iran pipeline is considered as “insecure”, then the TAP passing through Afghanistan and Pakistan should be doubly so. Thus, if this project were to materialise in the final analysis, which is highly doubtful, then it would only serve US geo-political interests in the region. This also has become clear from the note submitted by the foreign secretary to the ministry of petroleum and natural gas recommending the TAP pipeline project which shamelessly says “It would be in tune with the latest US strategic thinking for the region”.

Afghanistan has now been placed under NATO. 17,000 NATO troops are being stationed there. They would be expected to protect the TAP pipeline, a doubtful prospect given the rising Taliban activity and loss of control of the Hamid Karzai government in vast parts of the country. 

There is also the suspicion that many vested political interests do not stand to gain from the Iran pipeline project. Their interests would be best served if India continues to depend on the market for purchase of oil rather than address its energy security by firming up pipeline projects. This is because spot purchase of oil facilitates lucrative kickbacks. Therefore, the “enlightened national interests” of the country are best served if we continue to buy oil from American oil majors.

Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State, who has been vocal in her opposition to Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project has close links with Chevron, the giant US oil company.  Rice served on the board of directors of Chevron until she resigned to become Bush’s national security advisor in 2001. The Bush administration with its close links with the petro-dollar lobby will not countenance the IPI project which it sees as a threat to its energy and geo-political interests. Yet, the Manmohan Singh government, to maintain the pretence, keeps talking about pursuing the IPI pipeline project.  So does president Musharraf in Pakistan who is under tremendous pressure from the Americans. The announcement about joining the Turkmenistan pipeline project is just a cover to confuse public opinion at a time when the Manmohan Singh government is preparing to scuttle the Iran pipeline project.

This episode illustrates the new direction of India’s foreign and strategic policy. Many important developments have taken place internationally in the recent months. Russia, under Putin, has become more assertive and there has been a deterioration in US-Russia relations. There are growing ties and coordination between Russia and China. This was evident when the United States and its allies failed to push through a resolution against Iran under chapter 7 in the Security Council. 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has emerged as an important counterweight to the growing US hegemony and the global thrust of NATO.  The SCO consisting of China, Russia and four Central Asian countries is holding its summit meeting on June 15 in Shanghai. India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia have observer status. It is reported that president Musharraf of Pakistan and president Ahmadinejad of Iran will attend the summit. Iran has expressed its desire to be a full member of the SCO. China has said that its request will be favourably considered. The other three observers, including India, also want to be full members. But how far India is serious about this proposition is unclear. It is not surprising that the Indian prime minister will not be present at the summit, even though the external affairs portfolio is held by him.

In the meantime, the SAARC foreign ministers have agreed in principle to accept the United States as an observer. Apart from Japan, South Korea also wants observer status. Evidently, the US and its Asian allies are striving to consolidate their overall influence in South Asia. Significantly, this development coincides with the shift in US regional policy aimed at steering the Central Asian states towards the South Asian region within the ambit of a “Greater Central Asia” (GCA) that would also include Afghanistan. 

The Manmohan Singh government expects its stance on all these issues to be overlooked by proclaiming that it will act on “enlightened national interests”. But the overall direction of foreign policy and the constant erosion of India’s strategic autonomy will be major issues and will haunt the government in the coming days.