Myths About Population Growth Among Muslims

Tilting At Windmills

Amit Sen Gupta

THE BJP’s shrill campaign, sparked off by the release of population and demographic characteristics based on religious communities, leverages on two pet projects of the party – population control and Muslim bashing.

HYSTERIA BASED ON FALSEHOOD

To be fair, the hysteria that the BJP tried to whip up, was partly fuelled by faulty presentation of statistics by the Census Department. This was further augmented by large sections of the print and visual media. Banner headlines in many prominent dailies “screamed” about the “huge” growth in Muslim population between 1991 and 2001. Television channels, synonymous today with shallow and sensational reportage, joined in with gusto. Many channels had BJP and RSS spokespersons frothing at the mouth as they declaimed about Hindus in India being deluged by a burgeoning Muslim population. Many “experts” lent their voice to this campaign – one prominent news channel featured a well-known demographer who pontificated on the possible link with migration from Bangladesh.

Now that the Census Department has issued a clarification, and the census data is open for examination, let us look at what the figures really say. The initial release from the Census Department said that the population in India had risen by 22.7 per cent between 1991 and 2001. In this period the rate of growth among Hindus has been 20.3 per cent and among Muslims it has been 36 per cent. What the Census Department failed to highlight was the fact that in 1991, the state of J&K (the only Muslim majority state in the country) had not been part of the census operations because of disturbed conditions. Thus, while the 2001 census figures include the population of J&K, the 1991 figures do not. In order to make any sort of comparison, the population of J&K should have been subtracted from the 2001 figures.

The total population of J&K, according to the 2001 census, is just above a crore, of which Muslims constitute 67 per cent of the population. Thus of the 13.8 crore Muslim population in the country reported in the 2001 census, 0.68 crore – i.e. about 5 per cent – live in J&K. Because the 1991 census did not include J&K we need to deduct this number from the 2001 census figures of Muslim population. If we do so, we find that the growth rate for Muslims between 1991 and 2001 is actually 29.3 per cent –– 6.7 per cent less than originally reported! The rate of growth among the Hindu population would also come down if we subtract the Hindu population of J&K, but marginally to 19.9 per cent from the originally reported 20.3 per cent. If we look at the new figures, we would see that the rate of population growth has declined in the last decade (from the previous decade) by 5.2 per cent among both Hindus and Muslims (from 25.1 per cent and 34.5 per cent respectively)!

The BJP and RSS owe an apology to the nation for foisting this falsehood on the country – a transparent ploy to sow communal discord. So do the media who sought to sensationalise the BJP’s communal canard.

BOGEY OF POPULATION CONTROL

Having failed abjectly in its designs, the BJP is now trying to shift to another plank by resurrecting the bogey of population control. It now says that the issue is not just high growth in Muslim population, but also the larger issue of population growth. Why is the BJP saying this now? The 2001 census figures were available almost two years back – when its NDA government was in power. The total figures for population growth between 1991 and 2001 haven’t changed since then. The recent release by the Census Department has only added disaggregated data based on religion. How has it suddenly become such a major issue? Clearly, for all its fancy footwork, the BJP has emerged as an irresponsible party that is willing to clutch on to any straw in order to sow disharmony.

Let us, however, look a little more closely at the “population explosion” argument, not the least because it has many adherents even within the present dispensation. Let us, in fact, look at the reasons for the relatively high growth in Muslim population. Blinkered vision, such as the BJP possesses, never makes for rational analysis of facts – because facts often inconvenience such bigots. The recent release by the Census Department does not talk only about population growth. It gives detailed data about other socio-economic parameters, disaggregated on the basis of religious communities. This data is being presented by the Census Department for the first time, and it is essential that we look closely at what it says.  In its introduction while releasing the data the Census Department says: “In the past there has been a pressing demand from various agencies for the religion data cross-classified by socio-economic characteristics of the religious communities so as to assess the level of development achieved by them in the social and economic spheres of life. … The National Minority Commission has been suggesting that religion data be cross-classified by various socio-economic characteristics of the religious minorities to assess the social and economic status attained by these groups. Their requirement is therefore being fulfilled by the Census Organisation”.

CONDITIONS OF LIVING AMONG MUSLIMS

This socio-economic data on the Muslim community is startling – a sad commentary on the state of the nation 57 years after Independence. The data clearly shows that Muslims in this country are far behind in almost all socio-economic indicators. Literacy rate among Muslims at 59.1 per cent is way below the national average of 64.8 per cent and lower than that of all other communities listed. Worse still, work participation rate among Muslims is just 31.3 per cent, again far below the national average of 39.1 per cent. In other words a Muslim in India is 25 per cent less likely to be working than the average citizen in the country. The picture is even more grim if we look at the disaggregated figures for work participation. Just 20.7 per cent of Muslims are listed as cultivators, as compared to an overall average of 31.7 per cent. That is a Muslim is 50 per cent less likely to own and cultivate his own land, as compared to an average citizen of India. In contrast 8.1 per cent of Muslims – almost twice the national average of 4.2 per cent – work in Household industries, that is in poor, ill paid, sweatshop conditions (see Table below).

 CL: Cultivator; AL: Agricultural Labour; HHI: Household Industry

  What the data shows is that the average Muslim in the country is more likely to be illiterate, unemployed and landless. This is really the root cause of a relatively higher population growth among Muslims. Numerous studies and experiences across the globe have shown that socio-economic development precedes population stabilisation – not the other way round. It is foolhardy to believe that population growth can come down drastically without socio-economic development. If any body has been singularly responsible for pushing the Muslim community further into the quagmire of poverty, unemployment and illiteracy, it is the BJP and its cohorts (while in government as well as when in opposition). The BJP is actually responsible for a major part of the high population growth rate among Muslims – by its discriminatory politics and hate campaigns.

SEX RATIO AND THE BJP’S SILENCE

The Muslim community, however, fares much better in respect to one indicator of socio-economic development. This is related to the sex ratio – both for the general population as well as for the 0-6 year age group. Declining sex ratio in the country is clearly indicative of discrimination towards women and girls and the prevalence of the heinous practice of sex-selective abortion and infanticide of girl children. It’s a cause for national shame. Curiously Venkiah Naidu and his friends have been totally silent about the fact that in this regard the Muslim community fares better than the all India average and also better than Hindus. At 936, the sex ratio among Muslims is better than the all India average of 933 and that of Hindus at 931. The child sex ratio (0-6 years group) which is indicative of the prevalence of female foeticide and infanticide, is 950 for Muslims, 927 for the whole population and 925 for Hindus.  Is the BJP’s silence about this explained by the fact that the manuvadi core of the BJP’s ideology would prefer to turn a blind eye to gender-discrimination and murder of girl children?

There are huge problems that face this country. If as a serious political party the BJP is looking for issues, it should not require it to tilt at windmills and resurrect imaginary monsters. The BJP’s politics of falsehood and hate has been comprehensively rejected by the people of this country. But, as the saying goes: History repeats itself – the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce. In the ultimate analysis that is what the BJP’s campaign is – a farce.