People's Democracy

ANDHRA PRADESH

Opposition Unity & People’s Anger Washed Away TDP-BJP

B V Raghavulu

IN the elections to the legislative assembly of Andhra Pradesh, the opposition parties scored a grand victory by thoroughly defeating the TDP-BJP combine. With seat adjustment among the opposition parties taking place, the dissatisfaction of the people against the government turned into a flood and swept away the TDP-BJP alliance. It is acknowledged that factors like the sentiment for separate Telangana state, promise of free supply of power to the agriculture sector, and the impact of the activities of the People’s War in some of the areas worked against the TDP. However, going by the massive verdict given by the people across all regions of the state, it is clear that the TDP was mainly affected by the strong anti-incumbency mood of the people and the seat adjustment arrived among the opposition parties.

LOSING SUPPORT AMONG EVERYONE

The defeat of the TDP-BJP combine was comprehensive in all types of constituencies, irrespective of the rural and urban areas.  Even in Hyderabad and its surrounding areas, where it was believed to have better chances for electoral victory, the TDP-BJP candidates were routed.  They were defeated even in delta areas where there was no impact of the slogan of free supply of power. The attempts of the TDP to provoke the people in coastal Andhra area by painting a doomsday scenario if the Congress-TRS alliance comes to power, did not evoke much response. It was propagated that majority of women voters would vote for the Telugu Desam Party because its government gave importance to women empowerment by encouraging DWACRA (self-help) groups.  The TDP had put up more number of women candidates than other parties.  The TDP leadership, showing these aspects in the campaign, asked the people to vote for it.  However, even among the women, majority of them voted against the TDP.  The Congress got  12 per cent more women votes than what the TDP got; the Congress got 7 per cent more men votes than what the TDP got.  This only shows how severe was the anti-establishment stance of the people. Similar mood was prevailing among the youth and backward castes. It was thought that because of implementation of classification of reservations, Madigas, a sub-caste among the Dalits, would vote for the TDP in large numbers. However, more than 70 per cent among these classes sided with the opposition parties.  Even among the minorities, the TDP has lost its share by 10 per cent as compared to the vote it had got earlier. On the whole, the TDP has lost its support base among all social classes to some extent or the other.

The results have also revealed the widespread feeling among people in rural areas that the TDP government had severely neglected agriculture and irrigation sectors.  Despite many allurements, farmers and agricultural workers opposed the TDP-BJP combine.  The poor felt and thought that the TDP government was a government of the rich.  This was the reason why announcement of schemes intended to benefit 1.5 crore people just before the elections did not have much impact.  The government employees and workers as a whole expressed their anger and dissatisfaction against the Telugu Desam government. Though some developmental programmes, which are evident in towns, took place, the TDP could not get  benefit out of it even in those areas also.

In the 1999 elections, the TDP got 43.87 per cent of votes.  In the 2004 elections, that percentage has fallen down to 37.06, i.e. a reduction of 6.81 per cent.  As a result of this anti-TDP wave in the state, its strength has fallen quite sharply, and to many quite unexpectedly from 191 to 47 seats.

SIGNIFICANCE OF SEAT ADJUSTMENTS

In 1999, the BJP won 12 seats with 3.67 per cent votes.  In this election, its percentage of votes decreased by 1.04 (2.63 per cent) and it could win just two seats.

In 1999, the Congress won 91 seats by securing 40.61 per cent votes.  Now with a vote percentage of 38.24, i.e., a fall of 2.37 per cent, it captured 185 seats.  Clearly, such a grand victory was possible because of effective seat adjustment.  The TRS, contesting in 42 seats, got 6.63 per cent of votes and won in 26 seats.  Had the seat adjustment between the Congress and the TRS been made in a more reasonable way and the mutual revolts avoided, the results would have been far better for the opposition.  In all, seven rebel candidates of the Congress who contested against the TRS have won in the elections. In all the seats won by the TRS, it secured small majorities. And out of the twelve seats won by the TDP in Telangana region, TRS was its opponent in six seats.  The TRS fared poorly in those seats in which the Left also contested. Overall the people rejected the disruptive attitude of the TRS.  The performance of the TRS in Telangana area and the overall results throughout the state shows that the anger against the TDP government was the main reason behind the crushing defeat of the TDP-BJP combine.

In 1999, the CPI(M) got 1.7 per cent votes and won in two seats.  Now with 1.97 per cent of votes, i.e., an increase of 0.27 per cent, it emerged victorious in nine seats.  In 1999, the CPI could not win even a single seat, getting 1.62 per cent votes.  Now with 1.53 per cent votes, it secured 6 seats. 

The Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) won four seats in 1999, polling 1.08 per cent votes.  Now with 1.04 per cent votes, it emerged victorious in the same four seats.

The TDP-BJP combine, contesting together in 1999, got 47.54 per cent votes.  In these elections that percentage has come down to 39.69, i.e., a reduction of 7.85 per cent. The alliance with the BJP benefited the TDP in 1999.  Now the situation is such that they are openly blaming each other saying that the alliance had caused damage to their prospects.

In 1999, the Congress and the Left parties contested separately.  The TRS did not exist then.  Keeping the experience of 1999, seat adjustments were made to avoid splitting of votes among the Congress, the TRS, the CPI and the CPI(M).  Though some problems had arisen in the adjustment of seats, the arrangement resulted in avoiding the splitting of opposition votes.  In 1999, the Congress and the Left parties together got 43.93 per cent votes.  Now, along with the TRS they got 48.27 per cent votes. It is apparent the seat adjustment helped not only to pool their votes but also in getting additional votes.

The CPI-ML (New Democracy) retained its lone seat.  In the present elections the BSP could bag one seat for the first time.  The BSP candidate, who stood in second place in Paderu in Visakhapatnam district in the past, won this time.  Similarly, Samajwadi Party has got one seat and the Janata Party won two seats.  In fact, all these winners were Congress rebel candidates.  Having been denied the party ticket due to the alliance with the TRS, some of the aspirants revolted and entered the fray at the last minute as candidates of SP, BSP and Janata Party.  As a result, these parties too got representation in the assembly.

The CPI(M) contested 15 assembly and one Lok Sabha seats. Out of these, seat adjustment was reached on 9 assembly and the single Lok Sabha seat. The Party has won a total of 9 assembly seats and the Badhrachalam Lok Sabha seat.  In Khammam assembly segment, in a multi-cornered contest, the CPI(M) candidate Thammineni Veerabadhram won with 9,820 votes margin.  The CPI candidate stood fourth. The election result proved that the CPI(M) position was reasonable. Sections of the CPI worked against the Party in some other constituencies also. In Badhrachalam Lok Sabha constituency, despite many hurdles, the CPI(M) candidate Dr Babu Rao could win with a comfortable majority of over 53,000 votes.

Barring the CPI(M), there were revolts and open dissensions in all the political parties due to the problems arising out of seat adjustments.  In all, 28 rebels from the Congress, 25 from the TDP, many more from the TRS, one from the BJP,    two from the CPI contested.  Among the Congress rebels, many were strong leaders with following.  As a result seven such independent candidates scored victories.

BABU’S MIRACLES FAIL TO WORK

The TDP workers were confident till the results were announced that Chandrababu Naidu would ensure the victory of the party by performing miracles.  Chandrababu himself announced before the polling that miracles would take place.  By ‘miracles’ he and the TDP cadre meant money, liquor, dumping gifts, rigging, etc.  -  which the TDP used aplenty, but to no avail.  All these ‘miracles’ were washed away in the flood of anger of the people against the TDP.

It was a clean sweep for the opposition parties in Medak, Khammam, Nizamabad and Nellore districts where the TDP could not win even a single seat. In six districts, the TDP could win only one seat each. It could win 6 seats in Anantapur, 5 each in Chittoor, Srikakulam and Vijayanagarm districts.  But for group conflicts in the Congress, the condition of the TDP would have been much worse.

Out of 36 ministers, 28 were defeated.  The chief minister and another seven ministers alone could retain their seats.  In 16 constituencies where the TDP never suffered defeat since its inception, its candidates lost this time. In the dissolved assembly, there were 26 women. Now  there are 25 women.

All the pre-election surveys projected victory of the TDP.  Most of the exit polls stated that the majority of the TDP would dwindle and that there was scope for emergence of a hung assembly.  Contrary to all these estimates, the opposition parties have scored a grand victory. 

CPI(M)’S OBJECTIVE

The CPI(M)’s constant assessment has been that there was severe dissatisfaction among the people against the Telugu Desam Party and that the TDP-BJP combine could certainly be defeated if splitting of votes among the opposition parties was avoided. It expressed the confidence that the TDP-BJP combine could be defeated, though some problems had arisen during the adjustment of seats.  However, the trend of results shows that the defeat of the Telugu Desam Party exceeded even CPI(M)’s assessment.

The Party’s main objective was to defeat the TDP, which has been a strong supporting base to communalism and policies of liberalisation. To achieve this objective, it felt that it was necessary to see that the opposition votes were not divided.  That was why the Party was prepared to avoid mutual contests without having alliance with the Congress and the TRS.  It acted  without compromising anywhere on its basic policies.  Despite the attempts of the TRS to isolate the CPI(M), and the vacillations of the CPI to go along with others,  the CPI(M) could be a part of the seat adjustments among the opposition parties without compromising its basic policies. Even then, the TRS played a disruptive role by putting up its candidates in all the constituencies where the Left parties contested.   On the whole, due to the necessity of the Congress and our efforts, seat adjustment among the opposition parties materialised.  As a result of these adjustments, the opposition parties and the people got the confidence that they could defeat the TDP.