People's Democracy

As The Final Countdown Begins, BJP In A State Of Panic

S K Pande

LISTEN to the words of Ajatasatru, the son of Bimbisara, when he became king of Magadha: “I am abandoned by my friends and relatives, I am not trusted, therefore, I stand before the people afraid of the hell of defeat. Whose protection shall I seek?”

Listen today to variable themes in each round of polling and the BJP response, and in front is a picture of a comprehensive defeat for the NDA. A scenario, where the Left cannot be ignored is clearly emerging and that is having its own ripples, increasingly being felt, and even acknowledged. The question uppermost on everyone’s mind as the elections reach final stage is: will it be a secular coalition committed for a change or a rag tag status quo coalition seeking to put the clock back towards extreme right reaction.

The “King”, waiting for his third annointment in modern India, is on a hunt for new allies in what he fears could be a hung Parliament. The BJP’s search for an illusive majority – so that it could bid goodbye to many NDA constituents – has ended in fiasco after meeting with the shocking ground reality. All talk of the difficulty in running coalitions has suddenly ceased. Now the BJP claims that it has the rare expertise which it has mastered by running the NDA. This even as the NDA stands fractured and is heading for further dents, with brand Atal and ‘Feel Good’ going burst like a balloon in the three phases of polls so far. The BJP media management took the hype to such levels that the hype sellers are forced to become a wee bit cautious keeping their future credibility in mind, pressures on them notwithstanding.

Today, the NDA constituents, the few that remain, are in shambles, some on total retreat. Reports emanating from the ground suggest, that the one time saviour of NDA, Chandrababu Naidu, is waiting to lick the wounds of defeat. Tremors are being felt in West Bengal by Trinamul Supremo Mamata Bannerjee, herself facing perhaps the toughest challenge ever, with reports suggesting that the party is almost over. From the old days of being a Congress activist, to being labelled a giant killer, to supremo in Trinamul, then back to an alliance with the Congress and reverting back to the BJP, there is little left for her. A similar plight stares in the face of another supremo, Jayalalitha of the AIADMK. The Kerala kaleidoscope has nothing to offer to the NDA.

OPERATION SALVAGE

As the final countdown begins, the BJP top brass are running helter-skelter, in what could be a desperate battle for survival. Many key ministers are fighting to  save  their skin. The RSS final round blitzkrieg has begun. It is Operation Salvage, by hook or crook. The BJP has pressed into service vigilante squads reports The Hindu on the eve of the third round of polling. The RSS is putting all its energies to bail out the BJP. The exit polls seemed to be having an effect of another kind. The RSS has now pressed into emergency service the “Modern Day Nero”, Narendra Modi. Atal was first projected as the brand, then jumped in Advani with his marathon yatra and now it is the final card, Modi on a road show. The intentions are obvious. Modi is expected to deliver for the BJP by raising the baser instincts of the sangh followers. As the last round is not considered cozy as far as seats go, it is clearly a “do or die” round for the BJP in the north.

FISSURES IN TOP BRASS

In the midst of all this, Dr Murali Manohar Joshi, the HRD minister, known for his track record of drawing a double salary from Parliament and Allahabad University till it was found out, has expressed a sudden pre-election desire to know if he is number two or number three in the party. He is known to have his own dreams, after chipping in  a no-holds barred saffronisation drive in the field of education and culture. Many in the parivar are not happy with the timing of his outburst. In fact,  this burst  of anger is apparent for the second time. Remember, he was positively angry when his name remained in the list of Babari masjid demolition accused, while L K Advani was given a clean chit. He in fact resigned from the cabinet, till persuaded to comeback, not too long ago. As if to muddy the waters further, Vajpayaee off and on has spoken of retiring till matters are sorted out. As of now, the situation is far from cool for the BJP.

The battle to save what remains of the NDA is over. It is now the battle to save the parivar in Parliament, which seems to have reached a plateau. NDA number one brand Atal had to spend two days in his constituency. It is quite well-known that he had to work overtime to ensure some damage control from the sari episode and its fallout. But the Sari episode is just one such fact. Ask a layperson on the episode and the reply of any sensitive person is how poor must a person have been to pay to go for getting a cheap sari. And what about the farmers committing suicide to be relieved of all their debts. Even in Modi’s Gujarat, simmering of discontent is visible. Blow hot blow cold is the new name of the game.

AND NOW EC THE TARGET

The Election Commission has indeed taken proper note of the sari episode. But how is the BJP responded? It has called for “a code of conduct” for the Election Commission. The BJP in fact has accused the EC of showing an “unhealthy tendency” to expand its area of authority beyond the limits prescribed by the Constitution.

Another desperation in sight. The BJP is fuming at the Supreme Court on the Best Bakery judgment on Gujarat, which damned the Modi government in the severest of terms. Now they are pleading, prostrating for the Muslim vote through Brand Atal and have hooked in the Imam’s blessings. But his writ does not even run to a few miles beyond Jama Masjid. Simultaneously, it is the Hindutva vote polarisation complementing Modi-style polarisation card with the “Tulsi card” and cine stars roped in to draw crowds. Puzzled by the exit polls which went from feel good, to not so good, to a “close call” and somewhat egged on by the latest round of opinion polls, it’s a virtual electoral war in UP. This is also because it is a four cornered contest with a few dummies thrown here and there for “micro management” and other nitty-gritty just in case...

What has further baffled many hearts in the NDA bandwagon, is the fact that sections of the press, in fact more and more, seem to be slowly getting out of the TINA – there is no alternative to BJP – grove, and are not firmly in the Feel Good groove, they once were.

Right in the capital of India, the noose is tightening round the BJP grand visions of a sweep. It is here that they swept all the seven seats last time and fearful lest they get just a couple as is now being talked of even Rajasthan Governor Khurana had a brief, not publicised, sojourn in Delhi, and a whirlwind tour of Delhi by BJP big guns is slated.

The last two rounds have clearly stunned the BJP and it is hoping for a “turn of the tide”. “Election is no kids game,” says the BJP president Venkaiah Naidu. He is right there. Brave words – no. A sign of panic – yes. His attack has now shifted from Sonia’s foreign origin to kids Rahul and Priyanka. And as the last lap is on, the only mantra BJP is chanting is of providing  stability.

Consider BJP state wise. In Delhi, it is down, for no one can make it better for them from the 1999 seven-zero sweep. Its down in Haryana without an ally, West Bengal offers no solace. In Kerala, it’s the same no hope situation. Maharashtra sees anti incumbency against Congress but that is checked by Congress alliance with Sharad Pawar’s NCP.  Andhra has certainly dumped them, and Bihar threatens to do the same. The battle for UP is on and it is at best a close fight without much gain for the BJP. It is Assam, Orissa , MP,  Rajasthan  Chattishgarh with some hope for the BJP. In Jharkhand even union ministers are struggling to retain their seats even as the BJP watches with fingers crossed the results in Ayodhya.