People's Democracy

        The Push Must Now Come To Shove                  

Sitaram Yechury

AFTER the first two rounds of polling, the NDA clearly is not in a position to retain seats it won in the 1999 general elections. Way back in the last week of December last year (People’s Democracy, Issue dated Dec 29, 2003 - Jan 4, 2004), we had analysed that a reality check of the ground situation shows that it would be impossible for the NDA to retain the vote it won in 1999 elections. The reports from the ground, after the first two phases of the current elections, vindicate this reasoning.

There is a clear and a strong anti-incumbency sentiment that is at work. The very same sentiment that ensured the BJP’s victory in the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh last year when the anti-incumbency worked against the ruling Congress state governments is now working against the Vajpayee-led central government. The thousands of crores of rupees spent on building an orchestrated euphoria revolving around "India shining" and "feel good" has not only not worked but seems to have boomeranged.

Apart from the anti-incumbency factor, there seems to be a clear realisation amongst the voters that another term in office for the NDA would spell disaster for the country and the people. As we repeatedly argued in these columns, the NDA only served as a front for the BJP to implement its core communal agenda. The BJP, in turn, is nothing else but the political front of the RSS. It is essential that these forces must be kept away from the Central government, if India, as a secular democratic Republic, will have to survive.

In this context, the remaining two phases that go to polls on the 5th and 10th of May assume greater importance. 265 seats remain to choose their representatives. Of these, the BJP-led NDA currently holds 127. Except in the states of Punjab, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, it is unlikely that the BJP/NDA would be in a position to retain its numbers. In 1999, the NDA had won 10 out of 10 in Haryana, seven out of seven in Delhi and four out of four in Himachal Pradesh. It is absolutely impossible for them to repeat this performance in these states. In Tamilnadu and Pondicherry, the NDA had won 26 out of the 40. This, again, is impossible for them to retain. In the remaining 11 seats in Bihar, the NDA had nine. This, yet again, is impossible to retain. It is, thus, clear that the BJP/NDA can, in no way, come close to the number of seats that they had held in 1999 elections.

Clearly, the overwhelming desire amongst the Indian electorate is to defeat this NDA government. This has to be concretised in the coming two phases by a more decisive vote against the BJP/NDA. All resources and efforts need to be marshalled to ensure that the NDA remains way back in the race. This is all the more important given the desperation that the RSS/BJP/NDA is displaying. They are bound to use all unscrupulous tricks in order to manipulate the people’s verdict. Already reports of large-scale use of muscle and money power are pouring in. For these reasons, it is imperative that their defeat must be decisive.

This is all the more necessary given the BJP’s proclivity to enter into the most unscrupulous, unprincipled and opportunist of alliances. If the NDA comes close to the figure of 272, then it will not be difficult for them to shore up a majority through enticement, allurement, threats, intimidation and blackmail. The defeat of the NDA must be of such a magnitude that none of these must be allowed to work.

The need of the hour, therefore, is to give the final fatal blow. Let us together save India today so that we can build a better India tomorrow. For this, it is essential that in the coming two phases, the NDA must be dealt a decisive defeat.