People's Democracy

              LDF Set to Make Major Gains In Kerala            

THE southern state of Kerala will witness one of the most keenly contested elections in the country. Pitted against the LDF is its traditional rival the UDF. The LDF gained the initiative by being the first to announce candidates for all the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It took some more weeks before the UDF was finally able to come out with a list, with the usual bitter public bickering. This time however, the two main camps within the Congress led by Antony and Karunakuram respectively, contrary to earlier instances, settled the matter with lesser acrimony. With Karunakaran himself getting a Rajya Sabha berth, his son Muralidharan being accommodated as a minister and his daughter Padmaja getting the ticket from Mukundapuram, Karunakaran loyalists felt betrayed. For the battle to topple A K Antony was merely a veneer to promote his family interests, Karunakaran loyalists learnt the hard way. Now it was their turn to turn against their "leader" with some like Rajmohan Unnithan and Saratchandra Prasad holding out threats, leading to their suspension from the party. These suspensions were later on revoked and the two have now pledged not to support any such moves in the future. By the time the Congress, the main constituent of the UDF could put its house in order the LDF campaign had made much headway.

Be that as it may, the electoral battle in Kerala is a hotly contested battle between the two fronts—the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the CPI(M) and the Congress respectively. Given the thin dividing line between victory and defeat, calculations of pollsters often go awry.

Not this time however. With merely twelve days left for polls (on the day of filing this report) the writing on the wall is clear – the LDF is poised for a big victory improving considerably on its tally of nine seats in the last elections, with eight being won by the CPI(M) and one by the Kerala Congress (J). Later on the CPI(M) supported independent candidate won the by-election from Ernakulam in September 2003.

Kerala is facing one of the worst ever droughts in its history with many parts facing a severe shortage of drinking water. The problem is the severest in Kerala’s rice bowl Palakkad. Palakkad alone contributes 34 per cent of the state’s rice production. Palakkad has been a low-rainfall region. But in the past decade there was an alarming decrease in rainfall in the district, from 2,103.60 mm in 1994 to 1,208 mm in 2003. Peasants in Palakkad, Chittur and Alathur taluks have failed to receive water for the second crop in a row from the biggest irrigation dam in the state, the Malampuzha dam. This is the first time that this has happened ever since the dam was commissioned in 1955.

In the hills of the picturesque Wayanad there have been a spate of suicides in the past two months. Thirteen people have committed suicide being unable to pay back loans taken from cooperative banks or the "blade" companies (known for their cut-throat rates of interest). Elsewhere in the state another six people committed suicide during the same period. Kerala always had a high-suicide rate with its average being thrice the national average. But what is alarming is the new trend of suicides by distressed farmers unable to pay back loans. Such suicides have been reported from six of the fourteen districts of the state.

The state government’s announcement of a moratorium on loan recovery and offer of additional loans has not brought cheers to the suffering farmers. Peasant organisations have been demanding a loan wavier and adequate relief.

Kerala has been badly hit by the import policies of the Vajpayee government. The removal of quantitative restrictions from April 2001 has affected the agrarian economy of Kerala badly. There has been a drastic fall in the prices of all cash crops like coconut, rubber, arecanut. The Congress Party cannot escape the blame for this disastrous policy which it began and is now being pursued by the BJP government.

It is against this backdrop that Kerala’s electorate will elect its 20 members to the Lok Sabha in the final phase of polling on May 10. It may be recalled that in the first ever elections held in the unified linguistic state of Kerala in 1957 the communist party was voted to office under the leadership of Comrade EMS Namboodiripad. This momentous event heralded historic changes, having far-reaching effects on the politics and society of Kerala.

The Left Democratic Front, is the inheritor and preserver of this legacy which it is striving to carry forward. It carries forward the progressive traditions of the state. The LDF is a combination of the Left, democratic and secular forces.

The UDF on the other hand is a combination which represents all the vested interests. It represents a combination of caste and communal groupings headed by the Congress.

The difference between the LDF and the UDF concerns not just their diverse political approaches but on the question of economic policies also. The LDF stands for the implementation of alternative set of policies as opposed to the policies of liberalisation pursued by the central government. The UDF on the contrary, is an unabashed supporter of liberalisation and privatisation. Heading the UDF, is the Congress, which even while being allied to the Muslim League has no compunction in flirting with the BJP. In election after election the LDF has highlighted the underhand deals and vote swaping indulged in by the BJP and the Congress in Kerala in certain selected constituencies.

Chief Minister Antony has also come under attack from the Left for handling the Hindu communal organisations with kid-gloves. Praveen Togadia went unhindered with his trishul diksha and was all praise for A K Antony. In the case of Marad Antony was accused of openly siding with the Hindu fundamentalist organisations that were responsible for the riots.

The public positions adopted by the Congress leadership in Kerala betray this dangerous approach. Unlike the Congress at the all-India level, the state leadership has been noticeably less vocal and even silent on issues where the Vajpayee government has come under attack.

As Surjeet pointed out, Congressmen leaving their party and joining the BJP is not a phenomenon restricted to the North. Here too former union minister, Krishnakumar joined the BJP and is contesting on the BJP ticket. A Kerala Congress MP, P C Thomas quit the party and joined Vajpayee’s cabinet. He is seeking re-election from Muvatupuzha.

That the UDF is fighting with its back to the wall was disclosed by none else than chief minister Antony. He had to admit that the UDF campaign in the state was not satisfactory and complained that his partymen were still lethargic. He however refused to accept the poll outcome would be a referendum on the performance of his government. Kerala Congress(B) leader R Balakrishna Pillai said that infighting in the Congress would affect the winning chances of the UDF candidates in many constituencies.

Surprisingly for Kerala this time, the mainstream in media (if we were to exclude the Malayala Manorama) has not carried its tirade against the Left Democratic Front. Some people have even called the media "sympathetic" or "backing" the LDF this time. Even the television networks reflected the same mood.

The editor of Mathrubhumi which is the second largest circulated newspaper in the state in a signed article in Desha-bhimani has not only given vent to his opposition to the BJP coming back to power at the centre but also given his tacit approval to the policies of the LDF. Many other papers like Deepika (controlled by the Catholic Church) have tried to shed their overtly pro-Congress bearing. Even the Indiavision TV channel (controlled by the Muslim League) is not averse to projecting the LDF campaign in good light. The Asianet channel too takes care to avoid anything that could damage the chances of the Left.

If one were to make a prediction on the basis of the tumultuous and rousing reception that Surjeet received at the Kochi Airport at Nedumbassery, the LDF is set to sweep the polls in the state. The hundreds of red shirt volunteers and the beating of drums not only made the atmosphere festive but were indications of the enthusiasm and expectations of the people from the LDF. The writing is very much on the wall.