People's Democracy

ELECTORAL SCENE IN TAMILNADU

DMK And Allies Way Ahead Of NDA               

A A Nainar

THE summer of 2004 is particularly hot in Tamilnadu with the election scene hotting up as much as the natural heat. The electoral front, Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA), is way ahead of the AIADMK-BJP alliance both in terms of campaigning and in electoral strength. As is known, the DPA was forged under the leadership of the DMK and consisted of parties like Congress, PMK, MDMK and IUML. The alliance is being mutually supported by the CPI(M) and CPI.

While this formidable alliance had finalised well in advance its seat sharing arrangement and got onto the campaign trail, there was an initial hesitation on the part of the AIADMK to do business with the BJP, but went for a tie-up in the face of pressure from many quarters. After realising that the combined vote share of the parties in the DPA and those supporting it would make the alliance unbeatable, a few industrialists, former bureaucrats, pen-pushers of corporate houses and a few religious heads – all prevailed upon the AIADMK supremo to have a tie-up with the BJP. Though the BJP put up a brave face, it could neither clinch the declared two-digit number of seats nor get the desired constituencies. For instance, Pudukkottai constituency, from where the former union minister Thirunavukkarasar was elected to the 13th Lok Sabha, was denied to the BJP. They had also wanted the South Chennai constituency but were allotted the North Chennai.

The first round of campaign by the leaders of various political parties ended during the first week of April 2004. L K Advani started his first leg of the ‘Bharat UdayYatra’ from Kanyakumari on March 16. In spite of the rented crowds ‘mobilised’ for the road show, the yatra did not evoke any enthusiasm and inspiration among their cadres in the state. As his yatra entered into Tamilnadu from Kerala, his Coimbatore meeting, which the BJP claims to be its stronghold, witnessed one of the poorest mobilisations for a top BJP leader in recent times.

During the same period Jayalalitha kicked off her campaign trail, which also met with the same fate. There were more uniformed men than common people. When she introduced the candidates of the AIADMK at Madurantakam on the first day of her campaign, the administration of the state came to a grinding halt. All the ministers of her cabinet who had left Chennai are yet to come back – perhaps they may return after only after May 13. The constant theme of Jayalalitha’s campaign has been "My dear people! Do you want an experienced and matured person like Vajpayee as prime minister of India or half-baked, inexperienced foreigner Antonio Maino (Sonia) Gandhi as the prime minister?" She had no other issues or achievements of her three year old government to talk of. She was ridiculing Karunandhi all the way for the drought, water shortage and non-availability of Cauvery water for the delta region. Such repeated personal attacks continued ad nauseam and had a repulsive effect on the public and the media. This, besides other reasons, had a telling effect on her campaign trail that was lacklustre.

In contrast, Karunanidhi, who started his campaign a few days later from the same sands of Marina where Jayalalitha began hers, evoked spontaneous response and massive mobilisations even for roadside meetings. MDMK leader Vaiko’s meetings also attracted thousands of people who eagerly heard his experience of jail life and the sufferings he underwent at the hands of the AIADMK’s POTA regime. PMK leader Ramadoss also went round the state campaigning for DPA candidates.

The leaders of the CPI(M) and CPI have concluded the first leg of their campaign through out the state. CPI(M) Polit Bureau member, R Umanath, state secretary, N Varadarajan, central committee members K Varadarajan, N Sankaraiah, T K Rengarajan and W R Varada Rajan had addressed nearly 100 public meetings in total and numerous street corner meetings so far.

In the two constituencies from where the CPI(M) is contesting, the introduction of the candidates had taken place on March 27 at Nagercoil (Thackalai) and on March 28 at Madurai. In both the meetings the leaders of the supporting parties participated to express their solidarity and active involvement in the electoral battle against the anti-people regimes in the state and the centre. Earlier on March 26, the poll manifesto of the CPI(M) for the state, in line with the all India manifesto and with specific reference to the state’s issues, was released at the Party’s state head quarters.

Invariably, in all the meetings of the opposition parties, the gross abuse of POTA, TESMA & ESMA by the Jayalalitha government were highlighted. Her oppression against the state government employees agitation, electricity and transport workers’ agitations, deprival of the ration cards for middle income families with an income of Rs 5,000 a month were also highlighted by the opposition during their campaign. Failure to get Cauvery water and the acute drinking water shortage in the state were all topical poll issues that were raised by the opposition demanding an answer from the rulers. Jayalalitha’s anti-democratic methods, police encounters and attack on the press also came in for sharp criticism. Her support to the communal campaign of the BJP and passing of anti-conversion law were used to prove to the public that the BJP and AIADMK are natural allies who are out to disturb communal peace and amity in the state.

Now, with the second leg of the campaign commencing, the scene is further hotting up. Apart from the state level leaders, all India leaders of all parties are scheduled to be in Tamilnadu during the first week of May 2004. CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Prakash Karat addressed meetings in Chennai, Coimbatore, Thiruvarur, Madurai and Nagercoil between April 24 and 28. Party general secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet will be addressing two meetings, one at Nagercoil and the other at Madurai on April 30 and May 1 respectively while Polit Bureau member Sitaram Yechury will tour the state for four days during the first week of May.

If the response of the people is any indication, there is enough reason to believe that the anger of the people would definitely turn the tables against the AIADMK and the BJP. The DPA is far ahead in the campaign and in popular appeal. Surveys after surveys predict the downfall of the BJP combine in the state. In the 13th Lok Sabha the NDA had the overwhelming support of MPs from the state except that of two Congress and one CPI(M) member. This time when the new Lok Sabha will be constituted, perhaps the NDA would hardly have anyone from the state to stand by its divisive Hindutva project.

The battle line up is as follows in the 39 constituencies in the state of Tamilnadu and one constituency in the union territory of Pondicherry:

BJP (6+1)         7

AIADMK        Vs DMK 14

                          Vs Congress 9

                          Vs MDMK 4

                          Vs PMK 3

                          Vs CPI(M) 1

                          Vs CPI 1

                          Vs IUML 1

BJP                   Vs PMK 3

                         Vs Congress 1

                         Vs DMK 1

                         Vs CPI(M) 1

                         Vs CPI 1

                              40