Beware Of Doctored Poll Surveys

S K Pande

“Each one studied to tell Hitler what he wanted to hear, and sought to outshine his rivals and competitors in the matter of favourable and agreeable news calculated to show up his own ability and skill in bringing about desired results.  The German people, once the most objective and scientific of peoples, now went to unbelievable extremes of lying servility.”

• Extract from the book entitled Hitler Speaks by Hermann Rauschning published in December 1939, page 204; published by M/s Thornton Butterworth Ltd., London.

 THIS has happened in the past and can happen again. Should that be allowed? Most political parties expressed themselves in favour of a ban on pre-poll and exit poll surveys at a meeting convened by the Election Commission on April 6. And the EC also concurred with this view. This piece discusses various aspects of the issue to provide a perspective. It argues that in certain situations, the central objection to such a ban that it curbs the freedom of the press does not take into account the fact that the freedom of the purse often plays its role in the razzle dazzle world of cyber elections of today. Competing channels, and the Prasar Bharati, which is still a creature of the government, besides local and foreign media barons are always on the hunt for a pie in the sky. This in no way reflects on the fact that psephology can be a science, if not doctored. Furthermore India is indeed too large a country to fit in the mostly urban oriented cocoons of the experts.

EXIT POLLS: PROS AND CONS

Exit polls cannot be the final verdict. Nevertheless, they can be indicative of some trends and their findings do indeed arouse curiosity. But, because of the staggered polls especially this time, one can at best allow exit polls announcements only after the last ballot is cast in the last phase of the countrywide polls. Then let all psephologists bloom. This is one argument. Indeed, since the 90’s exit polls have attracted much attention. But there are instances of their going wrong too. And we have channels and channels yet to be born. And each have their own psephologists, experts and  syndicated psephologists too!

Opinion among journalists is divided on this issue but many editors-cum-proprietors are in the game themselves. What is appalling is that even astrological predictions, party surveys and rumour mongering squads insights are rubbing shoulders with these so-called surveys.

Over the years, the Centre for Media Studies (CMS) based post-poll surveys had maintained that pre-poll surveys appearing in the media do influence poll process. Based on the insights from conducting election studies for over 25 years, it had concluded that pre-poll surveys and even exit polls (when conducted prior to completion of the entire poll process), do influence the voters. At what stage of a poll campaign the findings of a pre-poll survey gets covered in the news media, and how prominently it is covered will have a bearing on the influence. However three distinct influences of pre-poll surveys could be traced. The same could be said about coverage of a poll campaign by media. These are:

• Bandwagon effect, where the tendency on the part of undecided voters is to go along with the party/candidate projected in the surveys as having a better chance of winning.

• Underdog phenomena, where the tendency, particularly on the part of disloyal voters, is to sympathize with the candidate projected to lose in the survey.

• Complacency factor, where leaders and cadres become complacent with multiple pre-poll surveys projecting pretty much similar outcome with safe margins, as if underwriting the victory of a party or candidate.

 The higher the percentage of undecided voters or keen the contests, the more likely the implications of pre-poll surveys. The least impact they can have is to enthuse cadres and influence fence sitters. Why pre-poll surveys have become another instrument in the armoury of political parties today is a point to ponder.  Editors should be the first to discriminate against pre-poll surveys which are part of party campaigns.

Every time there is an election, new survey agencies crop up and the onus rests with the news media to verify the credentials before sponsoring or covering surveys as news or even as advertisements. For, the intention of such surveys is to influence voters for a bandwagon effect. The media must be a lot more concerned about this aspect. In the four states where assembly elections were held recently there was evidence for all the three types of influence of poll surveys to some extent or other. Bandwagon effect in MP, complacency in Rajasthan and Underdog phenomena in Chattisgarh.

Academically speaking, poll surveys in the media are expected to improve the content and quality of an election campaign and the very process itself. With over a dozen pre-poll surveys one does not know to what extent this happened in the four states that went to polls. This is something media need to view more seriously and professionally, going beyond competitive and commercial concerns.  Since every one agreed that it was the last one or two weeks that made the difference in two of the four states, should that be attributed to media coverage or poll management?.  No party can afford to win a poll without strategic use of media. But that should not mean “media management” by political parties.

ELECTIONS AND TV

An expert in her own style, columnist, Shailaja Bajpai, looking at the recent assembly polls opined “This is by no means the first time 24-hour news channels have covered an election. What makes the TV coverage of the assembly elections in five states unique is the number of 24-hour news channels. For the first time ever there were, approximately, a dozen news channels - national, regional and in different languages - on the air. Has the number of news channels made a difference to the kind of coverage TV devoted to the election campaign? She went on to add “To the extent that the presence of so many TV news channels - and other channels that carry news and current affairs programmes - created a far more competitive environment, the numbers do count. It became a matter of both prestige and necessity for all news channels to offer extensive coverage of the elections. With so many channels in the fray, TV news coverage of the elections was a force multiplier, swelling the volume of coverage available to viewers.”

But remember too that TV news channels drove down the roads of MP and  could see it was a very bumpy ride. They were right there but in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan they were projecting the wrong picture along with the print media and the opinion polls. Exit polls have a far higher degree of accuracy. This year in the five states elections, Aaj Tak’s exit poll was the closest to the final results, followed by Sahara Samay and Zee News. However, opinion polls have again been found lacking.

As it was pointed out in research journals like Vidhura, the focus of TV coverage had been on personalities. In Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje’s outsider status, her royal lineage were subjects of interest to these channels rather than the policies of both the BJP and Congress. Ashok Gehlot was by and large missing from the small screen due to his “lacklustre” personality. In Chhattisgarh, the clash between the personalities of CM Jogi and arch rival Judeo overwhelmed TV channels.  Judeo’s oratory and his moustache, Jogi’s tribal background and the Judeo tape scandal exposed during the election campaign were the focus of the coverage rather than the people’s concerns. This time mud slinging and trivia are also there as never before and issues are being relegated into the background except by the Left.

It was not without reason that the Press Council even had to give its word of caution regarding poll surveys. The Council under Justice Sawant came with a set of guidelines in the regard. Furthermore, years ago, in a term forgotton these days, the Press Commission had spoken of astrological projections and called for an end to them among others in the name of scientific temper. However, such predictions are booming now even in the so-called mainstream media. The debate cannot end without bearing in mind the increasing strength of regional leaders and parties which are not so easy to discern in poll surveys in a diverse country  like ours, especially in a coalition era as we are in.

In a recent article in The Tribune, Bhaskar Rao, who himself had had to eat crow with all his expertise on more than one occasion, said that the question is not one merely of reliability but also about the intention. One may add that what is supposed to be independent is often not so. Of course, there are institutions perfecting the art and researching for years, as there are bogus ones.

Last but not least in a monopoly press situation,  and with Murdochisation known to have its sway, one has seen how even a chain of papers can be told to play their due role in voter influencing manoeuvres. Politics is being sought to be reduced to trivia, elections to money shows and entire democracy to be subservient to the needs of the market.

Remember the elections of 1971. The national press clearly proved biased, in fact, a mirror of distortion. All the five national dailies had to swallow their pride once the results were out. THEY WERE TOTALLY WRONG. This lesson must be kept in mind by the modern day media while covering elections.