People's Democracy

 Prajasakti Survey Reveals Fall in TDP-BJP Vote

THE hopes of the ruling Telugu Desam party that the assassination attempt of the PWG naxalites on its leader Chandrababu Naidu would help their party electorally may turn out to be false hopes. Not only is there absence of any sympathy wave in favour of TDP, it may in fact face adverse situation in the early elections to Andhra assembly.

This was indicated in a survey conducted by Prajasakti daily in 53 constituencies covering 9 districts and 5,772 voters belonging to all sections. The selection of the sample was done on a scientific basis.

According to this survey, Congress leads with 37 per cent of people preferring it while nearly 35 per cent of the voters preferred TDP. In the last assembly elections TDP got 44 per cent of vote and won 179 seats. The decrease in the percentage of its votes will be affecting the seats that it had won. The survey revealed that there was a slight decrease in the vote base of Congress when compared to the 40.6 per cent it got in the last elections. BJP contested the 1998 parliamentary elections independently and got a vote share of 18 per cent in the state. In the 1999 parliamentary and assembly polls though it contested in a limited number of seats in alliance with TDP it gained 10 per cent of votes. But according to the survey its strength has now come down to 4 per cent.

The Left parties have increased their support among the masses as per the survey. Nearly 30 per cent of the voters said that they are sympathetic to Communists while 9 per cent of them expressed their strong desire of seeing Left parties in power. A section of 8 per cent wanted to either vote for other parties or could not express their preference. The vote base that the Left lost to the TDP in the last elections is likely to be regained. Among those who chose to vote for the Left, considerable majority were from the oppressed sections.

With the decrease in the vote base of both the TDP and the Congress, the influence of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) is being felt. Though the naxalite attack on Chandrababu Naidu was condemned by majority of people, its influence on voting was not seen in the survey. The anger against Chandrababu Naidu government’s rule was felt particularly among agricultural labourers, dalits and people in the drought-hit areas of the state. Women were no exception to this kind of opinion. The situation varied from constituency to constituency but on an average a majority 60 per cent expressed their opposition to the sitting MLAs while 40 per cent of people said that the performance of the local MLAs was good.

When analysed with age as a factor, a majority of them aged between 18-25 expressed their preference to vote for Congress while among those who preferred to vote for the Left were mainly from the middle aged group. The votes of the business community and the farmers were equally divided between the TDP and the Congress, while among the employed, self-employed, unemployed and artisan sections of people the majority opinion was against the ruling TDP. Majority of dalits and minorities favoured the Congress.

Among women, the forward caste sections were equally divided between the TDP and the Congress while the backward caste women favoured TDP and the dalit women expressed their preference for the Congress.

Left: The survey found a change in attitude of the people towards the Left. In the 1999 assembly elections both the CPI(M) and the CPI contested jointly and got 3 per cent of votes. But now as per the survey nearly 9 per cent of the people wished to vote for the Left this time. It is a known fact that the mass base of the Left was dented due to its political alliance with the TDP for a period of 14 years. In the last elections this was reflected with the votes of the Left decreasing considerably even in their traditional strongholds. However, in the past four years apart from regaining the lost vote base, considerable efforts were made for expansion. Though the CPI(M) had a strength of 15 members in the state assembly during the 1994-1999 term, its strength came down to 2 in the recently dissolved assembly while the CPI drew a blank. The mass struggles waged in the past four years and their militancy in exposing and fighting the World Bank agenda being pursued by the ruling TDP has helped the Left. In general this is reflected in the survey, particularly the increased support among the workers, employees, artisans, agricultural labourers and other sections of people.

TRS Factor: The TRS came in to picture during the local body elections, held in the aftermath of the assembly elections in 1999. Its impact was found to a greater extent in Karimnagar, Nizamabad and Medak districts while its influence was generally felt in the rest of the Telangana region. In these districts the TRS can split nearly 15 per cent of the vote from different parties, as a consequence both TDP and Congress will be losing their vote base to the TRS in such constituencies.

Constituencies: Among the 53 constituencies, the TDP got a clear majority in 13 while the Congress got 15. The situation is favourable in 4 seats for the Left and 5 seats for the TRS. Due to the drastic decrease of the vote base for the BJP it may not get a single seat on its own.

The Decisive Factor: After going through the survey, it is clear that the permutations and combinations and adjustments among the contending parties will likely become the decisive factor in who wins. With just 2 per cent difference between the TDP and Congress, the fight is going to be close with the Congress likely to get a majority. However, the alliance between the TDP and the BJP gives it a 2 per cent edge over the Congress. This situation clearly shows that the outcome of the battle for Andhra Pradesh will depend on how best the Congress keeps the 61 per cent of the anti-TDP-BJP vote united.