BJP’s Fate Hangs In Balance

 Harkishan Singh Surjeet

THE fate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the premier ruling coalition partner at the centre, hangs in a balance today, with its base as well as prestige going down fast all over. Having suffered a severe jolt in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest state of the union, it is at a loss to understand how to face the assembly elections in four states that are going to take place within two months at the most.

PLIGHT OF THE PARTY

THE plight of this party can well be understood from the goings-on in Delhi, which is one of the states going to the polls. Here, the party tried its best to project Madan Lal Khurana, a local bigwig, as the future chief minister, but to no avail. It will be noted that Khurana was sworn in as chief minister in November 1993, after the first polls to Delhi assembly, but the internecine inner-party conflicts forced him to make way for Sahib Singh Verma who, in turn, had to vacate the seat for Mrs Sushma Swaraj in October 1998. But then the people of Delhi threw the BJP out of power, with bag and baggage, in November 1998.

And now the BJP has only one hope --- that maybe the so-called anti-incumbency factor works against the Congress government of Delhi, led by Mrs Sheila Dixit. The BJP’s only pious hope is that Khurana’s leadership may possibly work wonders and the party may be able to sail through in Delhi.    

How far is this hope justified? Going by the events so far, it appears that winning the assembly elections in Delhi would be a very tall order for the BJP. For example, the so-called Parivartan Yatra, launched by Khurana, failed to evoke any response from the people of Delhi and, even though the yatra has not been officially shelved, its programmes have been severely curtailed. According to The Hindu (September 8), the “severe infighting in the party ranks and the poor mobilisation during the yatra programmes” have made the party bosses desperate beyond measure. And this is “despite the fact that loyalists of Mr Khurana have been hiring tempos and people on permanent basis to be deputed along the entire route for the 35-day long extravaganza.”   

This is the sordid reality of the BJP in Delhi --- and all over the country. In the capital, the party thinks the naked use of money power (“hiring tempos and people on permanent basis”) may help it win the assembly polls. But it has forgotten that once the people make up their mind, no amount of political jugglery or use of money power can sway them. That Khurana failed to enthuse the people all over Delhi, including in the present chief minister’s constituency, therefore comes as an indicator of the things to come soon.

It is in this situation that elections to Delhi University Students Union gave the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, the students wing controlled by RSS, a jolt of its life-time. In these elections, all the ABVP candidates lost by big margins, for example one candidate lost by 4,700 plus votes against 20,000 plus, while its candidate for the vice president post came a poor third. Truly, the ABVP had never in the past suffered such an ignominious rout.

Understandably, the BJP, and Khurana himself, tried to play down the DUSU results. But political observers are virtually unanimous on the point that as the DUSU results came so close to the impending assembly elections, their possible fall-out cannot be wished away so easily. This has only added to the BJP’s desperation.

And what is true of Delhi is also true about the BJP’s plight in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, not to speak of Mizoram where the BJP does not have any significant presence.

CABINET EXPANSION

THE recent expansion of his cabinet by Vajpayee can be understood in this light. What immediately strikes about this exercise is the fact that there was no immediate need for it. For, Ms Mamata Banerjee and Gingee Ramachandran --- the ministers inducted into the cabinet --- belong to West Bengal and Tamilnadu respectively, where no assembly election is scheduled right now. In fact, the exercise can be explained only as a move made in view of the Lok Sabha polls that are to take place in about a year.

The cases of both these ministers are illuminating. Ramachandran of the MDMK was already a minister of state at the centre, but had to quit office a few months ago, following the exposure of his personal assistant’s involvement in certain shady deals. At that time, it was widely believed that the minister’s assistant might not have done all that he did without the knowledge and concurrence of the minister himself. But the significant, and deplorable, fact is that he has been reinducted into the union council of ministers even though his name has not yet been cleared.

But there is nothing surprising in all this. Following the Tehelka exposure, defence minister George Fernandes adopted a self-sacrificing posture and resigned from the cabinet, saying that he would not rejoin the cabinet unless his name was cleared. But, then, he could not bear to remain in wilderness for long and began itching for reinduction into the cabinet. Not only that, representing the so-called “party of principles,” Vajpayee did not even rethink for a moment and reinducted Fernandes even though his name is yet to be cleared in the Tehelka case.

Immediately after the Tehelka exposure, the then BJP president Bangaru Laxman too had to resign his post as, on TV sets, the whole country saw him taking a bundle of notes from decoy arms dealers and heard him asking for payment in dollars next time. But he too was comfortably accommodated later in a plum post with hefty perks and facilities. As for the present BJP president Venkaiah Naidu, his role in illegally cornering big chunks of land in his home state has already been exposed but yet he continues to preside over his “party of principles.” The common people, therefore, have now no illusion about the BJP, about its being a party that always talks of principles from the rooftops but always shelters the corrupt and the criminals.

As for Ms Mamata Benerjee, she quit the union cabinet on the demand that Fernandes must be kicked out of the cabinet because of his involvement in Tehelka case, and posed that her resignation was a matter of principle. But she too could not bear her wilderness for long and began to manoeuvre for reinduction. Now she has been reinducted as a minister without portfolio, and is reportedly sulking. (The Hindustan Times cartoon, September 10, describes her as the minister of sulk.) There were reports that she was offered the ministry for coal but that she spurned the offer. According to The Indian Express (September 9), the lady did not want to shoulder the responsibility of the coal ministry for many reasons. Over 100 coal mines out of 214 have already been closed; at least 26 mines under the Eastern Coal Fields are to be closed down; illegal mining with collusion between the officials and mafia is rampant; over 1,00,000 workers have already been retrenched and many more are soon to be retrenched while over 10,000 vacancies are not being filled up. Not only that, fire is raging in many mines. Vast areas in and around coal fields are facing the threat of submergence.  

In sum, the cabinet expansion, accompanied by a reshuffle, is also a telling commentary of the unenviable situation in which the leading party of the motley combine called NDA finds itself. 

REASON FOR DESPERATION

BUT the BJP’s desperation is understandable. During the last five and a half years since March 1998, the BJP led government has not lost a single opportunity to heap burdens upon the people. At the same time, the RSS led saffron brigade has been making all out efforts to divide the people along communal lines as their only hope for getting through. As much has been written about these aspects in these columns and much will be written in future, we need not go into details here. Suffice it to say here that the people’s standard of living and also the secular and federal structure of our polity have never faced such grave attacks as they did under the BJP led regime.

What strikes immediately is the way the regime is out to jeopardise the country’s interests in order to benefit the imperialist powers and their multinational corporations.

It is in this context that Ariel Sharon’s visit to India must be viewed. In fact, this fellow Sharon, who is called the butcher of Palestinian people, is the first Israeli prime minister to visit India, courtesy the Vajpayee led government of India. Nay, it is also known that Sharon’s visit is part of a grand plan to forge a US-Israel-India axis under the tutelage of American imperialists. This became evident when the prime minister’s principal secretary cum security advisor, Brajesh Mishra, made his pilgrimage to Washington some time ago.

But, needless to say, this bodes ill for our standing in the comity of nations. There was a time, not very long ago, when India was regarded as a leader of the ex-colonial, newly independent countries and played a leading role in the world arena. Our unequivocal support to national liberation struggles and third world countries, our determined opposition to imperialism and neo-colonialism, our stand against the arms race and for total disarmament --- all this earned immense prestige for the country. So much so that India was the first country Mandela chose to visit after coming out of jail. But now all that seems to be a thing of the past.

SIGNS ON THE WALL

BUT will it pass? There is no doubt that the RSS led brigade is doing its best to polarise the people on communal lines. They are at present clutching the ASI report on its diggings at the Babri site and are also seeking to raise non-issues like cow slaughter. Yet it does appear that people have got fed up with the regime’s misdemeanours and are in a mood to say that enough is enough. Even on foreign policy issues, the fact is that big chunks of our masses are fraternal to the Palestinians and sympathetic to their cause of an independent homeland. Moreover, they are also steadily realising the effects of a unipolar world for the developing third world countries including India and are also aware of the BJP led regime’s complicity in the imperialist game of subjugating the world peoples economically, politically, militarily, and even culturally through the use of bourgeois and imperialist media. The way the government of India said one thing before the WTO’s Doha meeting and did something different at Doha, is still fresh in the memory of the people who are eagerly waiting to see what role the regime plays at Cancun. But be that as it may, there is no doubt that the people will not hesitate in showing this regime the door at the very first opportunity. The signs are already there on the wall and the BJP leadership also sees them with a sense of desperation.