People's Democracy

The Calorie Consumption Puzzle

Jayati Ghosh

ONE of the more startling, but less discussed, features of Indian development over the past several decades, is the decline in per capita calories consumption which is revealed by the official National Sample Surveys. Average calorie consumption in India was already low by international standards. If it has actually declined despite apparently high aggregate economic growth rates, this is clearly something that merits much more attention.

The most recent data that we have on calories consumption, from the 55 Round of the NSS, is unfortunately not comparable with data from the earlier rounds, because of changes in the pattern of questions. Mostly, this means that estimates of food consumption are likely to be overestimates when compared to the earlier rounds. But even these overestimates indicate a decline in per capita calorie consumption for rural India in 1999-2000, as shown in Table 1 alongside.

LONG-TERM TREND

The more significant trend, of course, is the long-term decline since the early 1970s. In addition, there is what appears to be a convergence between rural and urban patterns of calorie consumption by the most recent period. In fact, by 1999-2000, the average calorie consumption in urban India was higher than in rural India. This is surprising given the perception that the rural population tends to consume more calories because of the greater intensity of work in rural areas.

There has been some discussion on how to interpret the long-term tendency towards declining per capita calorie consumption, especially in rural India. One argument that is frequently made is that the early NSS Rounds, including those of the 1970s and early 1980s, tended to overestimate calories (and especially foodgrain) consumption, so the later estimates are simply closer to reality.

Even if this were the case, there are still other questions to ponder. In rural India, it seems to be fairly clear that per capita calorie consumption fell over the period after the early 1980s, including in the period when all the estimates suggest (without controversy) that the incidence of absolute poverty was on the decline.

Some explanations of this trend have rested on the idea that this reflects a natural and positive change in eating habits, because of changes in rural work and life styles. One argument is that as more agricultural work has become mechanised, and as transport facilities have become more available, rural people have to do less physically difficult work and walk for less distances than before. This has meant a reduction in the biological requirement of energy.

Also, the increasing “urbanisation” of rural areas has meant that urban lifestyles, including food habits, have penetrated into rural areas. This has caused the narrowing down of rural-urban differences in food consumption.

NUTRITIONAL DEFICIENCY

So is it the case, then, that the decline in per capita calorie consumption is simply a positive reflection of development in various forms? Unfortunately, such an optimistic conclusion cannot be arrived at so easily, and may probably be misleading. This becomes clear when we look at the extent of “nutritional deficit”. This is the proportion of people who get less than 90 per cent of the prescribed norm of calories per day, which also takes age and sex into account.

Table 2 alongside provides estimates of how such nutritional deficiency has moved over time. The results are quite stark. In the rural areas, the percentage of population with less than 90 per cent of the norm of calorie intake increased from 40 per cent in 1983 to 45 per cent in 1999-2000. And if the sense that the latest period survey overestimated food consumption is correct, the ratio is likely to be even higher. In the urban areas, the proportion of nutritionally deficient population declined to around 48 per cent by the early 1990s, but appears to have remained at that level thereafter.

REGIONAL VARIATION

Of course, this all-India figure hides very substantial regional variation. The lowest rural average nutrient intake is to be found in the states of Assam, Gujarat, Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. These are not (except Assam) states with above-average incidence of rural poverty, and indeed have higher than average per capita income. Furthermore, in several of these states (except Kerala and Maharashtra) the average intake worsened over the 1990s.

State-wise variations are also related to differing physiological requirements and cultural habits. In West Bengal, average calorie consumption, at 2095 calories per day, is less than the national average of 2149, although in West Bengal the number has increased since 1983.

But two other factors are very important: local production in states, and the role of price movements of food, and cereals in particular. This latter factor may be a key element in explaining the calorie consumption puzzle, especially in the 1990s, since the decline in calorie intake is closely related to the fall in cereals consumption. Also, the expansion of rice production in West Bengal probably played an important role in ensuring some stability of calories consumption over the past two decades.

Price factors have been very important. The 1990s was marked by rising relative prices of cereals, all over India. While cereals consumption declined and that of non-cereals increased, the share of cereals in food expenditure did not fall, because of price increases. The fact that cereals prices increased faster than other food prices may have prompted a shift towards other kinds of food to the extent possible, and caused the decline in actual cereal intake (and therefore calorie intake).

All in all, the picture that emerges is that the current state of nutritional intake in the country is quite appalling, and needs immediate policy attention to ensure adequate access to food to people across the country.

Table 1

Per capita calorie consumption, all-India

  Table 2

 Per cent of population with

less than 90 per cent calorie intake