Chronicle Of A Disaster Foretold

Debasish Chakraborty

THE life in Baghdad, as we watched it in the first half of March, was surprisingly normal. The children were rushing to school, teens playing soccer, womenfolk buying tit-bits of domestic interest, even the bird-market was buzzing on a Friday morning. No military marches, not even war songs on FM radio.

CALCULATIONS OF DAMAGE

But then, the war is very much there. Not as a hanging cloud, but internalised through a long process of inevitability as the Iraqis know that they are going to face the onslaught of the mightiest military force of the world --- either today or tomorrow. And they know what war means  --- not only through their experience in the 1991 Gulf war, but also through the continuous war carried on in the name of sanctions. Iraq’s attempt to rebuild the country has been badly damaged by the ongoing cruel sanctions. Another war would result in immeasurable human disaster.

A primary calculation by UNO, as gathered in Baghdad, estimates the death toll in the coming war to be nearly one lakh, with injuries to another four lakh. As an immediate effect, more than ten lakh people would become penniless, the report estimates.

Primary concern, according to the relief agencies in Baghdad, is the food. Every family in Iraq now gets their food mainly through the public distribution system (PDS), effectively run by the government through the civil, private shops. The ration is really cheap and minimum needs are met. But it’s minimum. The food for PDS comes from “oil for food” programme of the UNO.

For last two instalments the government has supplied two month’s ration in advance. But now, the agencies fear, food stock is depleting and the PDS will face a break-down in the event of a war. The poor and even the middle classes are heavily dependent on this ration. There is a perceptible shortage of food in open market. Once this PDS suffers, there will be all-out starvation. The first victims will be the children and lactating mothers.

Though there is a war threat for long, the people have no or very little savings. In fact, a large section of the population has no permanent wages. Those who have, are earning meagre, with even the middle classes working in the service sector getting an average of 40 dollars per month. This must be viewed in the backdrop of speedy devaluation of the Iraqi dinar. In the first seven days of March, its exchange value came down from 2000 dinar per dollar to 2600 per dollar. The people of Baghdad fondly remember those days before 1991 war when a dinar fetched three dollars. The fall-out is clear: another war and within days the entire economy will crumble to its final knees.

MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN

The sanctions had their intense impact on the ever-increasing unemployment. Roughly, 50 per cent of the capable youth has no jobs to sustain. A very tight embargo on import of instruments has led to the stagnation of manufacturing sector. The only major source of employment is the construction works, which will be very badly damaged by the war. The economists in Baghdad University apprehend that within the first few hours of a military confrontation more than a lakh will be thrown out of their jobs.

Another vulnerable sector is communication. Tigris and Euphrates have divided the country almost in parallel. Any damage to the bridges on these rivers will result in the break-down of east-west communication, immediately jeopardising the flow of essential commodities. This is no mere chance as many such bridges had actually been destroyed in 1991. The relief workers of Red Crescent, preparing for the disaster, have told the visiting journalists that they would feel just helpless in such an eventuality as the road transport is the only available way to reach to the habitations.

After extensive damage in 1991, the electricity and water supply system in Iraq have not been fully restored yet. Even an attack on a single power facility or a water workshop can endanger an epidemic in the adjacent areas. Health workers fear that infectious diseases will spread quickly in absence of a functional sanitation system.

And the worst concern is about the medical facilities. Once the best in entire mid-east, the medical system in Iraq has suffered immensely in the sanction years. There is virtually no import of medicines and instruments in the hospitals. Dr Murtaza Hussain, assistant director of Saddam Paediatric Hospital in Al-Mansoor, reported that antibiotics and anti-fungal drugs were no more available as most of them had to be imported. Chemotherapy for the cancer patients has become almost impossible due to it. The doctors in Iraq cannot go abroad for medical conferences; even the scientific journals are not allowed to be imported. And all in the name of sanctions. Even the air conditioning systems in the operation theatres have gradually become dysfunctional. These hospitals are just not capable any more to fulfill the requirements of emergency treatment in any warlike situation.   

The United Nations’ High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), the organisation overseeing the refugee problem, has estimated that at least 20 lakh people would be displaced and rendered homeless in Iraq, with an estimated 15 lakh more rushing for shelter in neighbouring countries. The neighbours are apprehensive too and all except Syria seem to be hardly sympathetic to this eventuality. Borders are being closed in Iran, Jordan and Turkey though the relief agencies have so far managed to erect some tents in some parts adjacent to Iraq. Here too, the US administration has already intervened and pressurised the agencies to act under the control of their army. The European Commission coordinators in Baghdad have alleged that they are being coaxed to work under the US military dictates.

(Debasish Chakraborty is a journalist with Bengali daily Ganashakti and recently visited Iraq.)