BJP IN UTTAR PRADESH 

BEGINNING OF THE END?

 Harkishan Singh Surjeet

 IT appears from the developments in the last few days that Uttar Pradesh is most probably going to be the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Waterloo, and herald the beginning of the end of this party’s fortunes all over the country.

The reason is simple. Currently being ruled by an opportunistic coalition of the Bahujan Samaj Party and BJP, UP has been playing a crucial role in the country’s politics for a long time. It gave the country a large number of towering leaders of our freedom movement and gave, after independence, the maximum number of prime ministers. Being the most populous state of Indian Union, it sends as many as 81 members to our Lok Sabha, that is, even after Uttaranchal (with 4 Lok Sabha seats) was carved out of it. 

HISTORY OF DEBACLES

This precisely was the reason the BJP and other RSS-controlled outfits like the VHP and Bajrang Dal have been concentrating on this state. Every now and then, they seek to resurrect the issue of temple construction in Ayodhya that is situated in this very state. It was here that they demolished the Babri Masjid in order to polarise the masses on communal lines --- not only in UP but all over India. In addition, they have also been threatening to raise the issue of a mosque in Mathura and the Gyanvapi mosque in Benaras; both lie in the same state. This temple movement did pay the BJP some dividend and it got a majority in the UP assembly polls in 1991.

But that was also the BJP’s best performance in the state. When the BJP governments of UP, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh were dismissed in the wake of Babri demolition, and for their assisting role in this heinous act that threatened our very national unity and the secular framework of our constitution, the BJP lost assembly elections in three states. As for Rajasthan, it came to power only through unprincipled manipulations in which it purchased MLAs from smaller parties.

In UP assembly elections in 1996 too, the BJP could not muster a majority. At that time, the assembly was kept in animated suspension for six months. Then in March 1997 a BSP-BJP coalition government, led by Ms Mayawati, emerged on an unprincipled note. But this government did not survive beyond six months and died because of the same ailment of opportunism with which it was born. When the BSP walked out of the government, the BJP engineered defections from the BSP as also from the Congress and Janata Dal. It lured as many as six dozen MLAs with the promise of ministerial gaddis. Thus was born the biggest ever cabinet in the history of independent India --- of about eight dozen ministers.

Not surprisingly, this put the state’s exchequer under great strain. Developmental activities came to a standstill all over. Municipal bodies too became defunct for want of resources, so much so that all the cities in UP turned into huge heaps of stinking garbage. Even the roads leading to an internationally renowned tourist attraction like Taj Mahal did not escape this fate.

The MLAs that were now ensconced in ministerial gaddis, included several notorious criminals and mafia dons. This is what gave the criminalisation of politics in UP an unprecedented boost. Corruption reached a peak in this BJP-presided dispensation.

It was in the midst of the consequent all round hatred for the BJP that the party had had to face the elections in early 2002. As a matter of fact, the state should have gone in for assembly polls in September 2001, as the earlier assembly had already been constituted in October 1996. But the BJP did not have courage to face the people and got the polls postponed till February 2002 on the spurious plea that the first sitting of the outgoing assembly had taken place only in March 1997. 

Yet, despite all its nerve-stretching, despite all the attempts to polarise the UP electorate on communal lines particularly after Kumbh 2001, the BJP suffered a shattering defeat. While the Samajwadi Party (SP) emerged as the single biggest party with 141 seats in a house of 403, the BSP got 99 seats and the Congress 25. As for the BJP, it came a poor third and its seat tally came down by half --- from 177 to 88. Moreover, these 88 include more than a dozen members of the LCP, JBSP, etc, whom the BJP forced to contest on its own symbol, so that they do not run away after the polls.

THE SAME DIRTY GAME

Yet, as a senior BJP leader in UP told The Statesman (November 5) on the condition of anonymity, BJP leaders have not learnt any lessons from their history of debacles. With the active assistance from the UP governor who has himself been a committed RSS cadre, they indulged in the same type of dirty game that had made the people abhor their lowly political culture. Ignoring the spirit of our constitution, the governor did not call the leader of the largest party to form a government with the proviso that he must prove his majority within a stipulated period. In its stead, he gave his own party (BJP) sufficient time, more than a month, to engage in unprincipled manipulations. This allowed the BJP to strike a deal with the same BSP from which it had once engineered defections. It was, again, the same BSP that had avenged its humiliating split in UP by voting against the Vajpayee government at the centre in April 1999. 

That the second edition of a BSP-BJP government, led by the same (rather self-same) Ms Mayawati, presents yet another spectacle of opportunism, is clear from several facts. Not only these parties fought against each other most virulently during the elections. They also champion, or claim to champion, two diametrically opposite political philosophies and two different sets of interests. While the BJP stands for a theocratic Hindu Rashtra and defends the interests of upper castes, the BSP claims to fight Manuvad and to champion the cause of the Dalit and other weaker sections. In fact, it was their hatred for a common enemy, Mulayam Singh Yadav and his SP, that made these parties forge such a coalition.

That the formation of this coalition was blessed by the prime minister, the deputy prime minister and RSS leaders, who all never tire of moralising others about cleanliness in politics and life, speaks volumes about how much divergent their deeds have been from their words.

The behaviour of these ministers and other MLAs is such that it gives the people only one impression: that these gentlemen are out to make as much filthy lucre as possible before the house is per chance dissolved. Who knows how many of them will be able to make it to the new assembly if a mid-term election takes place! That the development works are suffering all over the state, that the people are crying even for their most basic and minimum needs, is certainly not these worthies’ concern.

COALITION IN MINORITY

It is therefore not surprising that the stability of this government was in doubt from Day One. The last ten-odd days have only boosted such doubts.

For, as the saying goes, if you sow a wind, you cannot escape reaping a whirlwind. The level of opportunism that permeates the coalition is so high that Ms Mayawati had had to effect a dramatic expansion of her coalition ministry --- from about 30 to 80, at one go --- in order to pacify the disgruntled elements. This was a pure survival strategy and nothing else.

But, to her dismay, the remedy turned out to be worse than the disease. For, many of those whose hopes of being inducted into the ministry were belied, rose in revolt. And these included not only BSP members but also those from the BJP, exploding the myth the BJP had assiduously cultivated of being a disciplined party. The spectacle of dissidence in BJP reached such a high pitch that when the prime minister visited his own constituency after a long gap, he felt compelled to cut short his visit by seven hours and run away for Lucknow on the pretext of a sore throat. The real reason was that Vajpayee did not simply have guts to face the dissidents.

On her part, Ms Mayawati too crossed the limits of political decency by shamelessly issuing a statement that she was prepared to effect yet another cabinet expansion if the BJP so desired!

And then, soon came a day when 12 BJP MLAs met the governor with the demand that a session of the assembly must be immediately convened.

But this is what both the BJP and BSP are extremely afraid of. A number of newspaper reports go to indicate that the coalition is now in a minority, and the BSP as well BJP apprehend that an assembly session at this juncture will only bring this dreaded reality into the open. There are also reports that, including the aforesaid 12 BJP MLAs, as many as 30 are likely to cross the floor if only a session is convened. This figure is magical in that if 30 MLAs really cross the floor, the anti-defection law would not apply to them and their membership of the house would remain safe.

And if a split takes place in BJP, can a similar split in BSP be far away? It is an open secret that most of the Muslim members of BSP legislature party are angry with Kanshiram and Ms Mayawati for having aligned with the BJP that has been guilty of massacring more than a thousand Muslims in Gujarat. These Muslim members, in cooperation other disgruntled elements in the BSP, may reach the magic figure of 34 and overturn Ms Mayawati’s apple cart if they get a push in the form of a split in BJP.

DESPERATE LIKE DYING MEN

These developments have made the BJP as well as the BSP leaders as desperate as a dying man could be. This is evident from the following.

On its part, with their central leaders’ assent, the state BJP leadership has suspended a senior leader like Gangabhakta Singh and some others from the party. They did not have the guts to expel these dissident leaders as that could have made the latter exempt from the anti-defection law.

In order to keep their flock in control, BJP and BSP leaders are also doling out the threat that they could go in for assembly dissolution. Ms Mayawati has already herded her sheep in a ‘safe’ place somewhere.

On his part the governor again played his dirty game. As per the SC verdict in Bommai case, floor of the state assembly is the only place to test the strength of a ruling party or coalition. But instead of calling a session of UP assembly, the governor gave the ‘certificate’ that the coalition still enjoys a majority. Nobody knows how the gentleman reached this conclusion!

At the same time, chief minister Mayawati too did not shy away from misusing the official machinery. She booked two dissident leaders --- Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiya and Dhananjay Singh --- under the Gangster Act. There are reports that they have been implicated in false cases. About the former, for example, it was said that he was involved in an extortion bid in his constituency even though he was present in Lucknow at the time of the said incident.

One thing must be clear. It is nobody’s contention, not in the least, that these MLAs are idealistic, beyond all reproach, and are itching for the UP people’s welfare. Raja Bhaiya’s history is also well known. But one will definitely ask: Have they not been implicated now only because they are threatening the government’s survival? Did not mafia dons and dreaded criminals rule the state as ministers for full five years? A dreaded dacoit of Bundelkhand won on the BSP ticket, at the gunpoint. Is he not a suitable candidate for the Gangster Act or some other similar act?

Be that as it may, it is almost certain that the tide of dissidence is going to take over the BSP-BJP leaders in the next few days.

This is more worrying for BJP leaders who are to face Gujarat assembly polls one month hence. Despite all communal depredations in that state, reports go to suggest that the BJP is not on a sound wicket there. (See excerpts from a Hindu report in “on file” in this issue.) So much so that the chief minister, about a dozen other ministers and several MLAs are asking the leadership to allot them “safe” seats. Among other things, the BJP’s actions to denigrate the Election Commission and other constitutional bodies have already alienated a large chunk of common masses from the party. In such a situation, their exit from power in UP will have a direct impact on their prospects in Gujarat. But this is also the reason that the secular and democratic forces have to raise their voice that the UP governor must either ask the state government to seek a vote of confidence or, else, he must dismiss the government that has clearly lost majority and ask the Samajwadi Party to form an alternative government.

November 6, 2002