INDO-PAK RELATIONS

WAR IS NO SOLUTION

Harkishan Singh Surjeet

WHILE the situation on Indo-Pak border is getting aggravated by the day, the heinous assassination of moderate Hurriyat leader Abdul Ghani Lone comes as an indication that those who want to keep the Kashmir cauldron boiling may go to any extent for this purpose. The situation demands more, not less, caution on part of the government of India, as any rash action may lead to incalculable consequences.

PAKISTAN:

ARMY-ISI ROLE

There is a reason for saying so --- today it is not Pakistan but India that can be expected to take initiative for peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute. While India has a more or less stable democratic set-up where the ruling party/parties have to give an account to the people at regular intervals, and the voters too are relatively mature, politics in Pakistan is of a different hue. There, after Jinnah’s death and Liyaqat Ali Khan’s assassination, the military has been ruling the roost most of the time. There have of course been intervals when the country reverted to a democratic system, but every time the latter was overthrown before it could strike roots. Thus Zia-ul-Haque overthrew Z A Bhutto and got him hanged while Pervez Musharraf overthrew Nawaz Sharif and forced a ‘voluntary’ exile on him. Poor Benazeer is idling her days in London and cannot dare return to Pakistan. 

In fact, the Pakistan military and with it the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) have developed a vested interest of their own and are dead opposed to any flowering of democracy in the country. They have been using Kashmir as their trump card for the purpose.

The fact is that Kashmir has been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947 and, contrary to the Kashmiri people’s will as expressed on many occasions, Pakistan projects as if Kashmir belongs to it on the basis of religious affinity. We have already dealt with the falsity of this claim several times in these columns. Suffice it to say that though there were brief periods when the peace-loving people of both countries hoped about an amicable resolution of the dispute sooner or later in their mutual interest, the Pakistan military and ISI’s intervention belied such hopes every time.

The same thing happened when, following the setback received in the Kargil conflict, Nawaz Sharif tried to restart negotiations with India. It was of course no change of heart on his part but a result of American pressure. But the military and ISI could not reconcile themselves to such a prospect, and Musharraf ousted Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf installed himself first as the “CEO” and then as president after compelling the elected president, Rafiq Tarar, to resign. Even though the Pakistani army is Punjabi-dominated, their vested interest made them accept Musharraf who is a Muhajir. Moreover, in a recent referendum whose validity is being widely questioned, Musharraf has as if got the seal of ‘popular approval’ for his rule.

This is not to say that the democratically elected governments did not seek to exploit the issue of Kashmir. Pakistan has fought two wars against India in 1965 and 1971, apart from the conflicts that followed the infiltration in 1947 and 1999, and suffered a defeat every time. Nay, it even lost East Pakistan that emerged as independent Bangladesh in January 1972. All this made Zia-ul-Haque adopt the tactic of a proxy war against India --- the very tactic the US and Pakistan adopted against the PDPA regime in Afghanistan. But even after Zia died in a plane crash and the country reverted to a democratic system, both the major parties, viz the Pakistan People’s Party and Muslim League, incited passions on the Kashmir issue in a bid to outdo each other. Moreover, in this game, they always tried to have by their side the army and ISI, which is what gave these institutions the status of “a state within a state.” 

This is what brought the situation in the subcontinent to a flashpoint.

AMERICAN DESIGN

Another major factor to create complications in the Kashmir situation has been the US interest in the region. All US administrations have been eyeing Kashmir in a bid to encircle the then USSR, particularly since 1953, and they still want to see Kashmir independent in view of its geo-strategic location in the centre of the old world. A military base in Kashmir can well be used to target Russia, China and India, not to mention Iran, Iraq and smaller countries of the region. 

With this aim US imperialists have always been active, from behind the curtain, to destabilise the situation in the state. The cat came out of the bag when, after his debacle in Kargil, Nawaz was called to Washington. Then Clinton’s joint communique with Sharif, which Vajpayee approved, openly said that Clinton would take “personal interest” in the Kashmir issue. As reported by media on occasions, US thinktanks continued to work on formulas to make Kashmir independent in the name of solving the dispute. One such formula they had suggested to and got echoed by Ms Bhutto --- free mingling of the J&K people with those of the Pak-occupied Kashmir for five years and then a referendum under UN supervision. This clearly meant leaving the field open for imperialist political and media intervention in the region.

Since Bush Jr assumed presidency, he has been taking a more blunt position regarding the subcontinent, unlike Clinton who tried to stage a show of non-partisanship. Following the September 11 terrorist attacks, Bush took the position that those who were not with him were with the terrorists. But, despite his fulmination against terrorism, he has not yet gone beyond verbal assurances insofar as cross-border terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir is concerned. Even in recent days, all the Bush emissaries who came to the subcontinent, from Dick Cheney to Ms Rocca to Armitage, posed as if they were trying to diffuse the tension here, but in fact all their statements had a pro-Pakistan tilt.

Yet the Pakistanis are wrong in thinking that the US will help them get Kashmir. In fact US imperialists have no such intention; they have their own global hegemonic design. The Bush administration has turned even more belligerent after its war against the Taliban and is now openly issuing threats to the countries that are not prepared to toe the US line, like Cuba, DPR Korea, Iran, Iraq, Somalia and Libya. Only two weeks ago, they made an unabashed attempt to topple Chavez in Venezuela, though they miserably failed. In such a situation, one can only expect more, not less, US intervention in the South Asian region.

BJP LEADERS IN DESPERATION

This is the international situation when tension has reached a high pitch on the Indo-Pak border. Exchange of fire is taking place from both sides for the last several days. Residents of border villages have run away to safer places, leaving all their possessions behind, to fate. The situation demands deft handling with mature statesmanship.

Unfortunately, many second-rank BJP leaders, including ministers, have been making irresponsible statements for the last few days. The gist of what they say is that India should go to a war with Pakistan or atleast cross the Line of Control and storm the terrorist training camps in Pak-occupied Kashmir. Some even demanded that the whole of Jammu and Kashmir be handed over to the army. Though the top leaders of the government of India have so far avoided making any such statement, some commentators feel the second-rankers are being encouraged to make such statements in a bid to gauge which way the wind is blowing.

The desperation the BJP leaders are feeling is understandable. They have lost a series of elections in the last four years because of their economic policies, communalism and saffronisation drive. The anti-Muslim carnage the RSS and VHP are perpetrating in Gujarat for the last 12 weeks has further alienated the people from the BJP. So much so that lakhs and lakhs of people who had illusions about or high hopes from the BJP, have now turned against it. It is thus clear that even reverting to the strident Hindutva agenda, which the hawks are advocating, is not going to help the party.

This is the danger inherent in the situation; the main ruling party and its lackeys may be tempted to go into a war as their only hope. But BJP leaders must not forget that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers today. It is often said that going to a war is easy, but once a war starts it has its own logic and takes its own course. The danger is that if the Indo-Pak situation gets deteriorated beyond a point, it may even lead to a nuclear conflagration.

The Vajpayee government must also realise that the US diplomacy is out to set a trap for India, which we need to avoid. As said, Bush emissaries are trying to pose as peace-brokers but they are in fact backing Pakistan. So far, under the Shimla agreement, both countries have avoided involving any third party in their dispute. This is worrisome for the Americans. The latter have no locus standi in the region but are itching to intervene, which they cannot hope to do unless India and Pakistan go to a war. The monkey is thus out to make the cats fight, so that it may grab the bread for itself.   

This is a matter of great concern for the patriotic forces, as New Delhi today has the most pro-US regime since independence. As said many times earlier, this government has dismantled the entire edifice of our earlier, time-tested consensual foreign policy of non-alignment, independence, anti-imperialism, world peace and disarmament. Quite recently, Indian and US armymen staged joint exercises in Agra and in north-east; that was unimaginable a few years ago. Even today, the Vajpayee regime has high illusions that the US would help it vis-à-vis Pakistan. It does not realise that while trying to have India by its side, the US would never give up Pakistan. 

At the same time, the government must not forget that no lasting solution to Kashmir issue can be evolved without overcoming the sense of alienation that has gripped the Kashmiri masses and winning them over. The people are already fed up with violence, but are not prepared to repose their faith in the government. They have to be won over by determined political measures. As said several times earlier, grant of maximum possible autonomy to the state and protection to the Kashmiri culture and Kashmiri identity are important steps in this direction. The GoI has to involve in the political process all those who are willing to seek a solution within the framework of Indian unity. At the same time, the all-round destruction that has taken place during the last one decade and a half, calls for vigorous measures to put the state economy back on the rails.

As for today, the GoI must avoid falling into the trap of revanchism. War brings no solution to any problem. In its stead, the GoI must step up its diplomatic-political offensive and mobilise international opinion against cross-border terrorism. But this also requires that the BJP shed its anti-Kashmiri bias that has made it reject the autonomy demands so far. It must recall that it is the people of Kashmir who fought the Pakistani raiders, rejected the pernicious two-nation theory and forced the Maharaja to accede to the Indian Union. And given sincere and determined political measures, the same people will no doubt prefer to remain with the Indian Union.