People's Democracy

THE first election to the 70-member Uttaranchal assembly may well see several shock reverses for the BJP and some shocks for some Congress(I) big guns too, with some independents, regional parties and may be a few Left candidates just about making it. Not only this, going by the campaign mood, some of the rebels in both the BJP and the Congress(I) may also make it to the assembly. Even as the campaign begins, the prospect of a hung assembly looms large.

It is not perhaps curtains down for the BJP, primarily because of division in the secular votes. But it is heading for a close tussle between the Congress and the BJP for the number one slot. There is no third force in the state at the moment. But even the non-Congress secular and regional conglomerates may be in for some pleasant surprise. Not because of any effort on their part but due to the anti-incumbency factor working against the BJP.

What is it that has led to the present position? Acting as an interim government of a new state, the BJP behaved as a full-fledged government. But it acted for select coteries of theirs and for factions of power-seekers belonging to the Sangh Parivar. It is a matter of record that the first chief minister, Nityanand Swami, was himself a compromise candidate amidst a real power tussle between major local contenders for power. The drama and the near-revolt from day one told only a part of the story. That he had to be bundled out rather unceremoniously, and that later too power contenders had to be kept out on the eve of the polls to settle once again for a compromise candidate Koshiari, reveals a continuum in the power struggle.

It is known that, fearing a BJP debacle, the number of persons contacting the high command in Delhi for the chief ministership declined. Koshiari too was selected because he belonged to the Kumaon region, was an RSS pracharak and also connected with the Shishu Mandirs. He was selected to try and neutralise the propaganda that Nityanand Swami, the former chief minister, was not only not a son of the soil, but not even in the RSS. Besides, he had connections with some Congress big guns. Also, he had been openly saying that he would remain the CM as there was no one of his stature to replace him. In fact, for some time the saying went that that it was first a bureaucrats’ rule and that the BJP began to put a semblance of ruling only later, while the state went from decline to decay. It is no wonder that, on the eve of elections now, people have begun to talk of "a year wasted," of the misrule of two chief ministers, of the two years non-rule of the BJP, of the rule by and for select BJP cadres.

Even before the last day of withdrawals from the poll, it is the same story everywhere --- from the interior of Kumaon to parts of Garhwal and Tehri. The mood is clearly anti-BJP though not for any particular party. This position has been taking shape for quite some time. There was little enthusiasm when the BJP got to celebrate its year in office. One could hear the chants increasing: "Whose celebrations? What have we gained?" In Tehri, some remember the town without the dam, while thousands await resettlement. Not the dam but proper rehabilitation of those affected is a common refrain of most. All over the state, people talk of the rule of builders, and liquor and timber mafia. In Terai, Bengalis settled for years in abject poverty are looked upon with suspicion; in other areas, Gurkhas settled for years and once the pride of the army are under watch and without jobs. As the election fever gathers momentum, one hears of rebel BJP candidates, and some openly talk of supporting the rebels. The public are openly saying that raj rog (the disease of power) has totally gripped the BJP. In key cities like Dehradun, while environmentalists mourn the virtual death of the city. In Nainital belt, fruits have virtually vanished. In the villages, what has angered many are drought conditions with no declaration of drought.

About the special status granted to the state, the people ask, "Where is the special package offered to the state?" While a few see a marginal difference between chief minister no. 1 and no. 2, many sarcastically talk of the hunt for a Parmar, like Himachal once had and the pygmies without vision that Uttaranchal has got. With the elections approaching, national issues too have surfaced. Posters and discussions on the "coffin thieves" are now a common sight. Literacy is high, the employment scene bleak. The unemployment scenario is indeed grim with open charges that whatever jobs are there are for the BJP cadres. The universities, especially Kumaon, reek of saffronisation and intolerance. A common refrain --- the NCERT scene has changed with J S Rajput and history is being censored. Here we have another Rajput who terrorises the teachers, bullies the local press and wears shorts. His attempt is to ensure the RSS rule in the university."

While the BJP claims credit for the state’s formation, there is resentment even against the name Uttaranchal. Most in the state still speak of the Uttarakhand of their dreams, and ask whether it is a hill state now. Some resent even the selection of the capital that is to them even less accessible than Lucknow. They have their own preferences, while others wonder how the state is different from UP.

From a small building near the heart of Dehradun city that houses its headquarters, the state CPI(M) is striving to make its debut in the new state assembly. CPI(M)’s state secretary Vijai Rawat concedes, "We are a small force. Unlike many others, we tried all along to form a common platform besides conducting our own campaigns. Our central political task is to ensure a decisive defeat of the BJP and that should have been the central task of all secular parties in the state."

Rawat charged the BJP government with playing with the pluralist cultural aspect of the Uttarakhand people. Here, not only the religious minorities but also the linguistic minorities are being made to feel insecure. The BJP’s domicile policy has targeted the people of Bengali or Nepali roots. The BJP rule has been a disaster, Rawat added. "It has seen deterioration in the law and order situation, unresolved problems of development and corruption on an increase. We tried our best for a secular non-Congress alliance but failed due to the shortsightedness of some. People’s pressure will ultimately help the process in the long run, he said. In keeping with its decision to contest only where it can defeat the BJP, the CPI(M) decided to contest eight seats." But as there is no alliance, it is now contesting only five.

The CPI(M) will also support the CPI at Gangotri and Yamunotri, the Samajwadi Party at Chakrata and Pindar and the UKD on 2 seats. The CPI(M) has appealed to the people to support its candidates and, in other places, the CPI, SP and UKD after assessing the strengths of the respective party candidates.

The stage seems set for a nail-biting finish between the two key players --- the Congress(I) and the BJP --- while the Left, some independents, the UKD and even the BSP or some rebels may gain something.

One thing is clear that the hegemony the Sangh Parivar sought to establish is about to be severely jolted.