GUJARAT POLL SCENE

 Shock Reverses For BJP Likely

 Digant Oza

(Veteran journalist Digant Oza, known for his deep understanding of Gujarat affairs, recently did a special piece for INN. In his opinion, despite the lacklustre campaigning, the confluence of a variety of forces might give quite a few jolts to the BJP and its bandwagon.)

However, if at all the Congress wins under the circumstances, it would be despite the Indian National Congress. Apart from the wrong selection of its candidates and overplaying of the Hindu card, like a B team of the BJP, the party has not even taken care to compare the English and Gujarati versions of its election manifesto! The BJP is blaming the Congress for drafting two manifestos --- one in English for secularists at the national level and one in Gujarati for local Hindu voters.

Although election campaigning in Gujarat appears to be lacklustre, different forces are congregating and that might lead to the defeat of BJP candidates in a large number of constituencies where it had won in the last elections.

Let me illustrate the case of Bhavnagar North constituency. Since the 1990 elections, the BJP has won the seat defeating the Congress and the CPI(M) candidates in triangular fights. The Congress and the CPI(M) together polled 1161 votes more than the BJP in 1990, and in 1995 and 1998 elections they polled each time over 6500 votes more than the BJP candidate who won. Thus, even without the current communal carnage, the BJP’s stock in the constituency was going down. In the current contest, the Congress has extended support to the CPI(M) candidate Mr Arun Mehta, son of Mr Subodh Mehta, well-known CPI(M) leader from Gujarat. Similarly, in Jamnagar the Congress has supported the CPI candidate. Both appear to be sure victories unless a resource crunch or lack of activism on part of Congress workers proves to be an obstacle. Incidentally, if they win, the Gujarat assembly will witness communists in its corridors after a gap of 30 years when a sole candidate, Mr Batuk Vora, had won from Palitana constituency in Bhavnagar district.

The indication is that the strong Patel lobby in Saurashtra, that had swung Keshubhai Patel into power in 1995 for the first time and in 1998 for the second time with overwhelming support, is losing its hold on the Saurashtra seats. More important than the communal issue, Saurashtra and Kutch people appear to be dissatisfied over the performance of the BJP government particularly in water supply, power and development of infrastructure. It must be understood that in Kutch and Saurashtra, the issue is not poverty, it is the craving for developing the economy into a vibrant one and striking a regional balance.

At the state level, the scene is the following. In 1998, Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) was in fray in 164 seats. The party lost deposits in 114 seats and won only 4 seats. The BJP got 57 such seats where the RJP, Congress and BJP had been in triangular contests and the total Congress-RJP votes were more than the BJP’s. Both the RJP supremo Shankarsinh Vaghela and the party president Madhusudan Mistry are now in the Congress. The former, as everyone knows, is now the Gujarat Congress president while the later is a member of Lok Sabha. The current situation is that the Congress, with RJP voters mostly in its favour, is likely to consolidate its position in several of the said 57 constituencies. This is notwithstanding the fact the NCP, Samajwadi Party and some other parties may eat into the Congress votes to an extent. In the last assembly elections, the Congress had polled 35 per cent of the votes against the BJP’s 45 per cent, with Waghela’s RJP trailing third with 11 per cent of the votes polled.

One more important factor for the outcome is that the ideologically committed non-BJP people in Gujarat have taken a clear stand to defeat the BJP at any cost and are actively campaigning. From pro-Narmada Chuni(kaka)bhai Vaidya to anti-Narmada advocate Girish Patel and from the Sarvodayites and Gandhians to the Leftists, everyone is active under the banner of Gujarat Lok Sangharsha Samiti. This entire gamut of such influential people have been deeply disturbed and rattled by the communal carnage that they believe was enacted by the BJP government in full support to the Sangh Parivar organisations. The group has mustered support from national level leaders like former prime ministers V P Singh and I K Gujaral, etc, to former chief justices of different High Courts. Leaders and volunteers have descended from all over to campaign against the BJP in this election.

Although not very large in number, Muslims are in critical numbers in about 80 assembly constituencies in Gujarat. The total number of Muslims in these constituencies is about 23,49,000. In these 80 constituencies, Muslims constitute at least 12 per cent of all voters. In the state as a whole, out of 3 crore and 28 lakh total voters, Muslim voters are 42 lakh, i e 13.5 per cent. Recently, in Ahmedabad, an all-Gujarat meeting of the Muslims was organised to discuss the poll strategy and about 300 representatives from various organisations participated in the meeting. The organisers here talked about supporting the secular forces. Most participants interrupted the meeting and categorically asked the organisers to resolve to vote for the Congress. The point is that Muslims in Gujarat have made a stern resolve to defeat the BJP by solely supporting the Congress. The ‘panja’ is to get the votes also of those who did not vote in the past elections.

Till the last assembly elections, the BJP enjoyed an indirect support from the indifferent and inactive Muslim community, in its poll fortunes. But this time, the back up seems to have gone, thanks to the unprecedented communal savagery that ruled the roost in the state for several months. The Chhipa community has revolted. It was this community that ensured the supply of some of the better made campaign material, including saffron scarves and Hindutva-promoting banners, to the BJP during earlier elections. But not this time. The community has a monopoly over the cloth-printing business in Ahmedabad.

The BJP government’s performance is full of blemishes. This has irritated and angered very many groups in the service sector too. The government and public sector employees have resolved to vote against the BJP, almost in unison. To illustrate a more specific case, it is learnt that the schoolteachers associations in Gujarat has sent out more than 70,000 letters to defeat the BJP in the election. Similary, depositors of cooperative banks (involved in fraud and closure) have been demonstrating and asking for against voting for an inactive government. These middle class people number about 20 lakhs.

It is also interesting to note the situation with respect to rebels and their possible impact. It is true that there are rebels in both BJP and Congress camps. Most of them have filed their nominations as independent candidates. There are about 24 rebel candidates from both the parties. However, BJP rebels such as former urban development minister Parmanand Khattar from Jamnagar are in vehement opposition to the party and if they win, it will end up spoiling ‘the party’ for the BJP’s official candidates. In case of Congress rebels, the impact is likely to be ultimately in favour of the Congress, because the winning rebel candidates are most likely to support the Congress in the assembly. Even if they lose, they will disturb the caste balance the BJP is banking upon and indirectly help the Congress. The same cannot be said about the BJP rebels.

Finally, about the party dynamics. Within the BJP, there are forces at work that realise that if the BJP wins the polls and forms a government in Gujarat, it will be a serious setback to the ‘Atalji’ camp and fellow ‘liberals’ in the party in Gujarat and in India. The way Narendra Modi “blackmailed” the party, the RSS and VHP high command to deny ticket to former minister Haren Pandya has annoyed hardcore BJP loyalists and they feel that to vote for hardliner Modi will amount to voting ‘Atalji’ and the liberals out. Secondly, Keshubhai’s late acceptance and genial admission to work and campaign for party would bring some positive results but the charisma he had in 1995 and 1998 has somewhat eroded. The Patels have been split into Kadva and Leuas after Keshubhai came back to the party fold. Kehsubhai is a Kadva Patel. What will the Leuas do is anybody’s guess. The Congress has not done anything very great. If at all it gains from the present situation, it will be more by default. Although both Congress and BJP have realised that the Hindu card is no longer relevant in rural areas, both have been able to nominate candidates on caste lines to counter the Hindu card.

TAILPIECE

Mr Suresh Mehta, the minister for industries in the last BJP cabinet, led an official delegation to the chief election commissioner and submitted a memorandum to him, to demand postponement of election date (December 12). The reason: on that day highest number of marriages in the current year are to be solemnised all over Gujarat. Marriages according to Savarn Sanskar take place in daytime whereas in case of lower castes they take place in the night. (Thus the BJP fears that their committed voters may be pre-occupied in marriages while pro-Congress voters may be free to reach the polling booths). The Sanskaras would come in the way of voting for the Swadeshi Savarn Hindus! This is the Gaurav of Gujarat!!

(December 9, 2002)