People's Democracy

The Northern Alliance has entered Kabul within three days of the fall of Mazar-e-Sharief. The Taliban withdrew from the town offering no resistance. No one, least of all the United States, expected such a swift advance by the alliance forces. President Bush, in the presence of General Musharraf had publicly called upon the Northern Alliance to bypass Kabul and head further south. The Americans wanted to put in place a post-Taliban political arrangement amenable to it before the Taliban were dislodged from Kabul. The US plans have been upset by the alliance deciding to go for Kabul much against its wishes. Pakistan, the chief patron of the Taliban, is equally discomfited by the sudden development. Both the United States and its partner Pakistan were working for an alternative set-up which would limit the role of the Northern Alliance which is being backed primarily by Russia, Iran and India.

The Bush administration is now working overtime to organise a "peace-keeping force" under UN auspices consisting of troops from Muslim countries like Turkey, Indonesia and Bangladesh. The Taliban retreat to Kandahar and the southern parts of the country presages the beginning of a prolonged guerrilla struggle in the mountains and the remote countryside particularly in the Pushtoon-dominated areas. The United States which wishes to avoid sending ground troops, is still determined to set up a pliable government in Afghanistan which will advance its strategic interests in the region.

Vajpayee at the conclusion of his fruitless and uneventful visit to the United States and Britain made a curious announcement at his press conference in London, on the day Kabul fell, that India is prepared to accept liberal elements of the Taliban in the new set-up. This contradicted the earlier firm position that there is no such thing as a moderate Taliban. Obviously, the pressure exerted in Washington and London to accept their version of a post-Taliban set up has had its effect.

The whole South Asian region faces a new situation. The Americans are manoeuvering to entrench themselves in Afghanistan; they have already a military presence in Pakistan and a working arrangement with the Musharraf regime who will continue to be their key partner in the Afghanistan project. It is in this context that the BJP-led government continues with its pathetic efforts to win US approval and recognition as its junior partner in the region. Even the failure of the Vajpayee visit to Washington does not seem to have deterred the quest to reduce India to a status akin to Pakistan, of being a faithful subordinate to the United States. The Americans have told India not to expect any substantial role in its war against Afghanistan. India should be prepared to cooperate with the United States at the military level on a more long-term basis, which will be obviously on the terms decided by the superpower. There are enough indications that the Vajpayee government is reconciled to such a role which was spelt out by US Secretary of Defense, Rumsfeld when he visited India recently.

The developments in Afghanistan and our region are fraught with serious consequences for India's sovereignty and peace in the region. It is imperative to ensure that the "nation building" exercise which America will embark upon in Afghanistan will not affect India's interests adversely. The first and necessary step for this requires the reversal of the blind pro-US orientation in foreign policy.