People's Democracy

THE democratic forces in the country expected the LDF in Kerala to make progress and rally the majority of the people and emerge victorious over the UDF led by the Congress. But the election results have disappointed them. Why the LDF failed is a matter of deep concern that warrants serious introspection and effective remedial action. The Congress party could rally all the caste, communal and anti-LDF forces ranging from PDP, a Muslim fundamentalist organisation, to the BJP and RSS and defeated the LDF.

The voting figures show that the LDF votes have increased from 65,57,412 in 1996 assembly elections to 67,20,307 in 2001 assembly elections. But there was a slight decline in the percentage of votes from 44.69 in 1996 elections to 43.70 in 2001 elections. The increase in UDF votes was much more and went up from 63,94,332 in 1996 to 75,78,186 in 2001. The percentage of votes also increased from 43.58 in 1996 to 49.27 in 2001. The strength of the LDF has been stagnating around 45 per cent of the votes polled, during the last many elections. The LDF mobilised the support of 44.65 per cent of voters in assembly elections in 1987, 45.80 per cent of voters in assembly elections in 1991, 44.69 per cent of voters in assembly elections in 1996, 43.35 per cent of voters in Parliament elections in 1999 and 43.70 per cent of voters in assembly elections in 2001.

The UDF got 44.04 per cent of the votes in the assembly election in 1987, 48.07 per cent of votes in assembly elections in 1991, 43.58 per cent of votes in assembly elections in 1996, 46.61 per cent of votes in Parliament elections in 1999 and 49.27 per cent of votes in assembly elections in 2001.

These figures reveal that the LDF polled the highest percentage of votes of 45.80 in assembly elections in 1991 but it was defeated. The LDF won the assembly elections in 1996 with a lesser percentage of votes of 44.69. The fact to be noted is that every time, the UDF managed to rally all anti-LDF votes under one umbrella, they were able to win elections in Kerala. As long as the support base of the LDF remains, around 45 per cent and the LDF fails to make substantial gains, the present rhythm of government change at every assembly elections is difficult to avoid.

An important phenomena to be noted in the Kerala Legislative Assembly elections was the transfer of a section of RSS-BJP votes in favour of the UDF. The voting figures of the present assembly elections also revealed this trend. The BJP polled 12,44,709 (8.05 per cent) votes in the Parliament election in 1999, but their votes have come down to 7,99,409 (5.20 per cent) votes in the present assembly elections.

Shri A.K. Antony, leader of the Congress party, openly solicited the support of the BJP in the present elections. Shri K. Karunakaran, another important leader of the Congress party, publicly admitted the alliance between a section of the Congress leadership and the BJP. When Shri Jana Krishnamurthy, President of the BJP, visited Kerala for election campaigns, he had categorically stated that the main aim of the BJP in Kerala was to defeat the LDF and to bring it down from power. By transferring a section of their votes, the RSS and the BJP facilitated the victory of the UDF. This transfer of votes has helped BJP and UDF in defeating the LDF.

A preliminary analysis of the election results also reveals a small erosion of the traditional vote base of the LDF due to various factors.

The prices of most of the agricultural commodities crashed in Kerala. It is estimated that the annual loss to the peasants and agricultural workers due to the price fall of rubber, coconut, arecanut, pepper, tea, coffee etc amount to Rs. 6,000 crores. This steep fall in the prices of agricultural commodities was caused by the import of agricultural products and the threat of more imports. The import liberalisation was initiated by the Congress and now enthusiastically carried forward by the BJP-led government at the Centre. These were explained by the LDF during election campaign but a section of the common people believe that the LDF government failed to protect their interests.

The adverse impact of the financial crisis of the state government on the common man also alienated a section of the voters from the LDF. The Eleventh Finance Commission's decision to reduce Rs. 733 crore from the annual allocations to Kerala is the main reason for the crisis that the state has been plunged into. The price fall of agricultural commodities and the consequent fall in the tax income of the state also contributed to the financial crisis. This crisis led to difficulties for the government in making payments to many sections of the people in time. The UDF was, however, successful in attributing the cause of these problems to the financial mismanagement of the LDF government.

The liquor barons and hooch-makers who were against the new excise policy announced by the government did everything to defeat the LDF. The new excise policy envisaged the elimination of private contractors as vendors of country-made foreign liquor and toddy and take over by public sector undertakings such as Kerala State Civil Supplies Corporation, Beverages Corporation, workers cooperative societies etc. The LDF did not get sufficient time to organise this new set up, or, to make necessary adjustments in its implementation. On the other hand, the UDF publicly declared that they would restore the old system. A section of the anti-Left Front leaders in the SNDP also branded the new excise policy as deliberately formulated by the LDF against the Ezhava caste. All these created confusion among a section of our supporters.

The Kerala State Committee and the Polit Bureau of the Party have decided to undertake a detailed review of the election results immediately. No doubt, the election results underline the need for a self-critical examination of our performance and shortcomings and failures of the LDF government. It is also to be emphasised that a proper assessment of the political and organisational aspects of the Party must be made, aimed at correcting the mistakes and shortcomings, for bringing a change in the political situation in our favour.