People's Democracy

THE speed with which the Vajpayee government uncritically welcomed President Bush's new missile defence system and changes in strategic nuclear policy have taken aback even those who broadly support the pro-US orientation in foreign policy. President Bush, in a speech on May 1, announced his determination to go ahead with the National Missile Defence (NMD) system and virtually announced the death of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty.

It took just one phone call from Condoleezza Rice, the National Security Advisor to the US President, asking to speak to the Indian Foreign Minister, Jaswant Singh, for the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) to come out with a press statement hailing the speech of President Bush.

This statement reveals all that has gone wrong with India's foreign policy. It is a stark exposure of how deeply India has been committed to the status of a junior partner of the United States by the BJP-led government. The text of the statement is being reproduced in full alongside. It is full of embarrassing platitudes for the latest American position. It characterises the speech as an attempt "to transform the strategic parameters on which the Cold War security architecture was built". It welcomes the "moving away from the hair-trigger alerts associated with prevailing nuclear orthodoxies" and "the unilateral reductions by the US nuclear forces". It lauds the desire of the US President to make a "clean break from the past" etc etc. A significant omission in the entire statement is any reference to the NMD proposal, which was criticised by the Foreign Minister last year.

We had, in a previous article in the People's Democracy (April 15, 2001), noted the euphoria in the ruling establishment after Jaswant Singh’s visit to Washington and his personal audience with Bush. The servile relationship forged by Jaswant Singh has been further highlighted with this MEA statement.

What is the Bush speech about? It announces a new ambitious plan to build a vast network of sea, air and land based anti-missile systems. This "son of star wars" system is supposed to meet the threat of "rogue states" launching a sudden missile attack on the USA. Even in Clinton's time, such an anti-missile system was proposed to counter the threat from countries such as North Korea, Iraq, Iran while implicitly the real target was China. With the advent of the Bush administration, the target is now explicitly China. In a recent review, the strategic focus has been shifted to the Pacific region to target China, instead of the earlier preoccupation with the former Soviet Union.

By building a widespread anti-missile system based in different parts of the world, the US hopes to utilise its technological superiority to reinforce its military muscle and hegemony. In this process, Bush has declared the American intention to nullify the ABM treaty of 1972 which was the basis of all subsequent arms control agreements. The Bush speech was notably silent on what would replace the 1972 treaty as the new framework for arms control arrangements and to regulate the missile defence system.

In the name of giving up the Cold War nuclear arms balance, what is being put in place is an American-dominated nuclear arms system which will assert US hegemony and threaten both Russia and China.

The dismantling of whatever arms control regime that exists would result in an unbridled new nuclear arms race. The Bush's strategic proposal is riddled with fallacies. It will only lead to more nuclear-tipped missiles in the world. The NMD has so far proved to be of dubious worth, with all the preliminary tests having failed. The system, itself, will cost anything from 60 billion to 100 billion dollars, a prospect which gladdens the US arms multinational corporations.

Bush's speech has been met with either wariness, or, dismay, even among the allies of the USA. The most loyal of the European allies, Britain, has been cautious. The British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, told Parliament that, "It is important and right that we wait for a firm proposal before giving a firm decision". Within Britain, there is strong objection to the project as it would involve providing British bases for the American global missile defence plan.

Jaswant Singh and the MEA are very happy that the American Deputy Secretary of the State, Richard Armitage, will be visiting Delhi on May 10 and 11 to hold consultations with the Indian government on the missile plan. Armitage is also going to South Korea and Japan for such consultations. It is significant that both these countries, who are part of the American alliance, have not come out with any official approval of the US plan. The South Korean President is apprehensive that Bush's plan targeting North Korea will upset the ongoing peace process between North and South Korea. Earlier, he had expressed unhappiness at the NMD. Japan also is deeply concerned at being part of a US global plan, which is not based in Japan as in the case of a theatre missile defence plan. The Japanese Constitution does not allow any global military alliances.

The NATO will, of course, being under the US thumb, accept the NMD. But none of the major European NATO allies such as France and Germany have come out yet in full support of the Bush plan.

But all this is of no concern to the Vajpayee government. Unlike the European or East Asian allies of the USA, the BJP-led government has fully endorsed and lauded the Bush plan. In doing so, it has only focussed one-sidedly on the announcement of the unilateral reduction of nuclear weapons, and not addressed the main issue of the NMD.

China, in its first reaction through Xinhua, has stated that the President Bush's "missile defence plan will destroy the balance of international security forces and could cause a new arms race". Russian has taken a firm stand against the scrapping of the 1972 ABM treaty.

The American plan to neutralise China's strategic missile system will force China to think of new alternatives. It would lead to China increasing and upgrading its nuclear and missile systems. This would, in turn, lead to India upgrading its nuclear weapon strength. Pakistan would then follow suit. The American NMD would thus lead to a nuclear arms race in the South Asian region too.

The welcome accorded to the Bush plan coincided with the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister, Ivanov, to Delhi. Jawant Singh had to respond to the Russian concerns without reneging on his commitment to the Americans. Therefore, he plumped for the equivocal stand that India is against the unilateral abrogation of the 1972 treaty.

The abandonment of the ABM treaty and the development of new missile weapons systems is fraught with serious consequences. Soon after the Bush speech, the US Defence Secretary, Rumsfeld, has announced the Pentagon's plans to militarise outer space. The BJP-led government stand shamelessly endorses such adventurist and dangerous ideas.

Underlying the effusive welcome by the BJP-led government, is the hawkish position that India should be freed from all constraints to develop its nuclear weapon force. The Bush plan, with its dismantling of the arms control regime, is seen as an opportunity for India to develop its own nuclear force albeit under the US umbrella.

The basis for the turnaround from the earlier criticism of the NMD by Jaswant Singh, to the present total and uncritical acceptance, are the arguments of the nuclear lobby masquerading as strategic experts. In the recent period, various articles by such ideologues justifying the American NMD plan and claiming that India will not be adversely affected have appeared. Prominent among them is K. Subramaniam, who is also the Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board.

Jaswant Singh, who is the linkman between the Americans and the Vajpayee regime, has made no secret of his anti-China orientation. In his book "Defending India" published last year, Jaswant Singh assessed China as follows:

"The Chinese strategic culture remains what it has always been: wedded to domination; not so much through occupation of the (real or potential) adversary's territory as through a psychological subjugation of mind, an emasculation of the adversary's response options. India, therefore, needs to pose to itself some unsettling questions. It is in this broad backdrop that we address ourselves to drawing a contour map of India's tasks in the coming decades."

It is with this world view that Jaswant Singh has assiduously sought to reverse India's non-alignment policy and seek US patronage.

Richard Armitage's trip is to be followed by the visit of the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Henry Shelton. During Jaswant Singh's visit to Washington, it was decided to resume the Indo-US military cooperation which was disrupted after the Pokhran tests. The Pentagon is keen to maintain direct relations with the Indian armed forces. It may be recalled that the Indo-US military cooperation pact signed in 1995, provides for separate executive steering committees between the two armies, navies and air forces. The proposal is to revive these committees and also the civilian defence apex committee. Though India will not get any sophisticated weaponry because of the US sanctions, the Vajpayee government is planning to allow the US to have full access to the Indian armed forces.

The Bush administration has embarked on a new aggressive global strategy which is causing unease even among its allies. The Vajpayee government has put up a display of unashamed sycophancy in its anxiety to worm its way into the good books of America. In this process it has announced to the world what has been evident for sometime now. India, under BJP rule, aspires to the status of a regional cog in the American global strategy.