People's Democracy

Prakash Karat

THE Vajpayee government, which in the last three years more or less abandoned the non-aligned foreign policy and openly advocated becoming a junior partner of the United States, is now finding itself in a quandary. The prolonged engagement with the Clinton administration with 12 rounds of talks held between Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh and US Assistant Secretary of State, Strobe Talbott, was hailed as a breakthrough in Indo-US relations. The Clinton visit in March 2001 was triumphantly flouted as the fruition of this process. That the visit came a few months before Clinton was set to bow out of office was deliberately underplayed.

During the presidential elections in the USA, the foreign policy establishment in India conveyed the impression that a Republican administration would be favourable for India. Political commentaries appeared highlighting the fact that the Bush Presidency would not push for the signing of the CTBT as the Republicans were against the US acceding to it. The pressure on India to sign the CTBT would, therefore, be off. Further, on issues such as Kashmir, it was felt that the Bush administration would adopt a less interventionist posture.

What was overlooked in this rosy picture was the fact that a Republican victory would usher in an administration which would be more aggressive in pushing for American hegemony and more rightwing in its concerns. The illusions about a pro-Indian Bush administration did not last long. In the two months since the new administration took office, signals have emanated from Washington which are causing anxiety to the Vajpayee government.

Firstly, the new Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, has publicly expressed concern about Russia’s role as a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction to countries like "Iran, North Korea and India". The BJP-led government is horrified at being bracketed with countries like North Korea and Iran which are considered "rogue states" by the United States. This was followed by the US State Department taking strong exception to Russia supplying nuclear fuel to the Tarapur Power Plant. The US has warned that this would be violative of the non-proliferation commitments by Russia.

The world outlook of the Bush administration is reminiscent of the earlier Republican regimes, particularly the Reagan era. As per as the men dominating the Republican administration are concerned, Russia and China continue to pose a serious threat to the United States. Countries like Iraq, North Korea, Iran and Cuba are to be treated as hostile powers.

Given this Cold War attitude, any move for better ties between Russia, China and India would be treated with suspicion by the US administration. The Director of the CIA, George Tenet, in his testimony in the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 7, 2001, said that Moscow is using the arms trade "to improve ties with China, India and Iran. The Russians hope that strengthening ties with those countries will erode US interests".

The Bush administration has begun with warlike measures against Iraq. It has broken with the Clinton efforts for an understanding with North Korea. It has declared that it can’t trust North Korea, to the dismay of the South Korean President, Kim Dae Jung, who initiated the policy to talk to North Korea. As far as China is concerned, Colin Powell, the Secretary of State, has announced that the Bush administration does not view it as a "strategic partner" but as a "strategic competitor". As for Russia, it views the Putin government’s efforts to assert an independent role as a potential threat to its hegemony.

It is in this context that the Vajpayee government is now scrambling to readjust its positions. The BJP leadership has repeatedly voiced the opinion that in the post-Soviet era, the only sensible course is to befriend the US and accept a subordinate role under its hegemony. Improving and consolidating ties with China is not to be accorded priority, if it displeasures the US. Given the BJP’s pro-imperialist orientation, the Vajpayee government cannot conceive of any policy stance other than continuing with its subservience to the United States. Instead of taking positions which will conform to national interests by adopting a multi-polar approach and strengthening and consolidating relations with Russia and China, the danger is that the Vajpayee government will now bend over backwards to appease the US.

There are already symptoms of this capitulationist attitude. On record, India has expressed reservations about the National Missile Defence (NMD) system which was being mooted by the Clinton administration. The Republicans are determined to go ahead with an improved and enhanced version. But the Vajpayee government has already begun resiling from its earlier stance. In February during Li Peng’s visit, India refused to join China in condemning the proposed missile defence system to be set up by the United States. Already strategic experts attached to the Indian establishment have begun arguing that India should not speak out against the new American version of "star wars" as its real target is China. Various ingenious arguments are being put forward to justify a soft approach to the NMD.

Recently, the South Korean President had expressed reservations about the NMD but had to soon backtrack due to the blatant pressure exercised by the United States. It is galling that India is now in a similar position as South Korea which has always been a junior partner and a client state of the United States.

After all the hoopla by the Vajpayee government about a significant turn in Indo-US relations, the stark reality is that the new Bush administration with its aggressive hegemonistic policies will bring home some hard truths for the Vajpayee regime. As far as Pakistan is concerned, the Bush administration made it clear that it will not give up its ties with an old ally in order to court a new one. If the pressure on CTBT is off, India will have to face tough nuclear and missile non-proliferation measures from the new regime. Any effort to assert India’s sovereignty on economic rights will be met with a hard response. The Bush administration will be more blatant about its support to US big business and MNCs like Enron.

If the Vajpayee government has any semblance of national concern, it would continue to promote and strengthen ties with Russia and China. The Putin Presidency has set aside some of the more blatant pro-American stances of the Yeltsin regime. It has indicated a greater willingness to revive and strengthen ties with countries like China, Iran and India. China has recently signalled its interest in improving relations during the visit of Li Peng. The Vajpayee government must realise that its self-induced euphoria about US benevolence towards India has been misplaced and harmful for India. But having invested so much into this unequal relationship, there is not much hope of a reversal or correction.