ALL our apprehensions about the economy are coming true. During the euphoria over this year's budget, we were castigated as the spoilers of the party. But the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has now put out facts which show that the economy grew in 2000-01 at a rate of 5.2 per cent, much less than 6.1 per cent that was estimated earlier.

And now, instead of seriously introspecting the reform process, the prime minister and the Planning Commission talk of achieving growth rates of more than 8 per cent! This is worse than building castles in the air. The reasons for the economic slowdown and industrial recession are not far to seek. With the government virtually withdrawing from economic activities by drastically reducing public investment, the gross domestic capital formation has sharply declined during this decade of "reforms." This, in turn, would lead to a further contraction of the aggregate domestic demand which has, in the first place, brought about the current recession. Instead of adopting measures that will lead to an expansion of domestic demand, the government has been pursuing policies which are leading to its further contraction.

The mid-term appraisal of the Ninth Five-Year Plan by the Planning Commission, in fact, candidly admits that the lot of the Indian people has worsened. It states: "In the 1990s, the growth rate in availability of foodgrains per capita has come down to (--) 0.28 per cent per annum, as compared to a growth rate in per capita availability of (+) 1.20 per cent per annum during the 1980s. The food consumption of the poor in India has gone down in the last 10 years."

Worse are the observations on the employment situation: "Against the growth rate of job-seekers of 2.3 per cent per annum, the rate of job creation has dropped from 2.1 per cent in the 1980s to a mere 0.8 per cent in the 1990s. So far as the private sector is concerned, while jobs grew at an unprecedented rate of 3.1 per cent per annum in the brief golden years from 1994 to 1997, the rate of job growth has fallen to a miserable 0.11 per cent in 2000-2001. Since the public sector is now effectively bankrupt, and is creating no more jobs, it is hardly surprising that the rate of job creation in the last three years has been below 0.5 per cent per annum."

In sum, the decade of "reforms" has seen India becoming mortgaged while the people are getting more impoverished. The remedy is not more of such "reforms" as this Vajpayee government suggests, but a significant expansion of public investment that would lead to generation of jobs and an expansion of the domestic market. In a situation where growth of foodgrain production has fallen below that of population growth, serious concerns arise about the food security of our country and people. Starvation deaths and distress suicides by farmers have become the order of the day.

It is imperative that, rather than abdicating its responsibilities, the central government step up its intervention and drastically increase public investment. Unless this is done, neither the country nor the people are likely to see any improvement in their economic status.