AS the Indian Republic completes its 50^th year, the central government has extended the cease-fire in Jammu & Kashmir for the second time, by another month. Any cessation of fire and hostility is welcome.

However, the experience of the last two months (the cease-fire was first announced on November 19, 2000, and later extended for a month till Republic Day), has shown that the activities of some terrorist groups have, in fact, intensified after the cease-fire, leading to the loss of many innocent lives. It is clear that mere extension of the cease-fire, however laudable, by itself is not going to lead to the restoration of normalcy in the state.

The extension of the cease-fire must be accompanied by a well-thought out strategy on how to proceed towards a lasting solution of the problem. On this score, unfortunately, the Vajpayee government has shown gross lack of any clarity or direction.

The Indian position consistently maintained, and correctly so, has been that any solution to all disputes between India and Pakistan including the Kashmir problem must be arrived at through bilateral talks between India and Pakistan. The basis for such talks was laid in the Shimla Agreement. Therefore, any solution, which is urgently needed to prevent the loss of further innocent lives, cannot exclude direct talks with Pakistan at the highest level.

On this score confusing signals are emanating from the government. While the Prime Minister, in his by now 'famous' musings, has indicated that, retreating from his earlier positions, he is prepared for talks with Pakistan at the highest level, strong signals from other quarters suggest that India will not talk to Pakistan till "cross-border terrorism" ceases.

Secondly, the solution of the Kashmir problem cannot be achieved unless the issues of sincere implementation of the provisions of Article 370 of our Constitution, and the question of autonomy for the state of Jammu & Kashmir as a whole, are resolved. On this score, again, there are confusing signals. The BJP continues to maintain its demand for the abrogation of this Article. The Union Cabinet for its part, unceremoniously and outrightly rejected the Jammu & Kashmir state assembly resolution on autonomy. While not conceding some extreme positions of that resolution, surely the government of India could well have kept the door of negotiations open on the quantum and content of autonomy for the state. Instead, by outrightly rejecting the ressolution, the Vajpayee government sent out signals that only contributed to a worsening of the situation.

A further dangerous dimension has been added by the RSS with the aggressive campaign mounted by its Jammu unit, for the trifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir into separate regions of, the Kashmir Valley, the Jammu region and Ladakh. Its objective could not have been more blatant -- communalising the situation into a Hindu Jammu, a Muslim Kashmir Valley and a Buddhist Ladakh.

In addition, if reports in the national press are any indication, a disturbing element of the Vajpayee government’s calculations suggest that the extension of the cease-fire was dictated by the desire that "the new administration in Washington would get enough time to lend a helping hand". (The Hindu, January 24, 2001). This is clearly accepting a US role in the affair – a position contrary to the accepted consensus in the country.

This lack of clarity, vision or strategy by the Vajpayee government, is leading to a very dangerous situation. The RSS demand for trifurcation, and the US longstanding position of "independent Kashmir", are actually acting in tandem, jeopardising the unity and integrity of India.

In these circumstances, the Vajpayee government, taking the people into confidence, must clearly spell out its strategy and objective in arriving at a solution of this vexed problem. The solution must rest on certain basic facts -

- Kashmir is an inalienable part of India,

- The people of Jammu & Kashmir must be given maximum autonomy within the ambit of Article 370,

- Any solution must be based on bilateral discussions with Pakistan, and

- No third party mediation can be considered or allowed.

The sincerity of the Vajpayee government in solving this issue, rather than communalising the atmosphere, will be judged by how it defines India’s strategic objectives, while extending the cease-fire.