People's Democracy

THE heart-beats of the BJP leaders have sharply increased, as UP elections draw nearer. It is increasing becoming clear that the BJP and its ‘strategist' Rajnath Singh will meet their Waterloo in these elections. This battle shall not only lead to the fall of the BJP-led government in UP but would also shake the very foundations of the Vajpayee government. An opinion poll conducted in the first week of October predicts that, far from securing a majority, the BJP may not even emerge as the single largest party, winning only about 103 seats. Though there is always a question mark over the reliability of the pre-election opinion polls in India, the agency that conducted this survey is known for its closeness to the BJP. A survey conducted prior to this one had predicted that the BJP would secure less than 100 seats.

This explains why the BJP government is still not eager to hold elections even though the assembly’s tenure ended in mid-October and the legislators from the Samajwadi Party, CPI(M) and CPI have resigned en masse.

The byelections to the Lok Sabha and state assembly, held after the last assembly elections, conclusively prove that the BJP has lost substantial ground in UP. It could win only half the seats in last parliamentary elections. It had to face defeat in subsequent byelections. Haidergarh, from where Rajnath Singh himself contested after assuming office, was the only exception and that too, because of gross misuse of government machinery. The vote share of the BJP, which was 33-34 per cent, till 1996, is today well below 30 per cent.

The widespread anti-establishment mood in UP is not surprising. Its government has proved to be a total failure. The jumbo-size ministry has established new records of misuse of government funds and wasteful expenditure. The government is at the brink of bankruptcy, caught in a debt trap, and the development works are at a standstill. The latest World Bank report has torn apart the governmental claims of success of poverty alleviation programmes. The state is affected by an economic slowdown; small and medium entrepreneurs and shopkeepers are getting caught in an economic crisis. The devastating effects of the new economic policy, coupled with the global slowdown, are crippling the handicrafts and small industry. Whether it is handloom and powerloom sector, carpet industry or readymade garments, leather industry or toy industry, all are at the brink of disaster. The day is not far off when UP shall stand not for Uttar Pradesh but for Udyog-rahit Pradesh (a state without industries). Unemployment is increasing and no improvement is expected due to the slowdown, destruction of small industries, dismantling of the public sector industries, and the ban on recruitment.

The situation on the agricultural front is also depressing. On the one hand, the cost of cultivation has increased due to reduction in subsidies and, on the other, the peasants do not get right price for their produce. The agricultural market of this country and of the state has become a part of the global market and MNCs have been allowed in agricultural sector. The growth rate of agriculture is on a decline. About 40 per cent of the population is not getting two meals a day. The farce of the 'anti-corruption drive' launched by the government proves that corruption has in fact been institutionalised.

The less said of the law and order situation, the better. Murders, loot and dacoities have become common. UP leads all the states in terms of the crimes against the Dalits and women and also their exploitation. The state has recorded perhaps the largest number of complaints of human rights violations. Kidnapping has become a lucrative profession. It can now be said that "if there in jungle raj anywhere in this country, it is here, it is here, it is here." This is concretely proved by the attacks on the minorities --- Muslims and Christians --- and a campaign of terror against them, and against the cultural activists. This was evident from the attempts to stop the shooting of the movie 'Water.'

That BJP had promised to liberate the people from fear, hunger and corruption. But what has taken place is just the opposite. It is not possible that the BJP leadership is not aware of this reality and the adverse effects it will have on its performance in the coming elections.

The BJP is today like the drowning man who clutches the proverbial straw. It is bent on using all possible means to save its fortunes in the coming elections. It gave in four years the responsibility of stewarding its rule to three persons --- Kalyan Singh, Ram Prakash Gupta, and now Rajnath Singh. An organised campaign is being conducted through the media and other means to bolster the image of the present incumbent --- that he believes in work and, if given an opportunity, he would definitely do something for the state. Rajnath Singh is himself contributing to this campaign; he does not forget to remind the people and his allies that to do something one needs a period of three to four years. This means that something would be done only if the BJP wins the next elections. In order to improve the image of the government, he has dropped Naresh Agrawal of LCP and won over the other section --- the Loktantrik Congress (Shyam Sunder Sharma group). He has also rid himself of the dissent within his party by dropping Ashok Yadav. But these steps have failed to enthuse the people, as no action has been taken against the ministers having a criminal background.

It seems the BJP and Rajnath Singh are under the illusion that they can win over the people by providing some sops and promising some more benefits. So, Rajnath Singh promises that elections would not be held till 40,000 persons are provided employment. He shouts that elections would not be held till most backwards and most Dalit among the Dalits do not get reservation. His style of work and manner of speech leave no one in doubt that what he is doing is not for the betterment of the people but with an eye on the elections. The bankrupt Rajnath Singh government, which has nothing to give to the people, is promising something to all --- peasants, teachers, state government employees, traders, industrialists --- by meeting representatives of various communities, organising mass rallies or panchayats. This reminds one of the grandmother's tale of ‘Dhapor Shankh’ which promised more than what was asked for, but did not give anything. It is clear that all these have failed to win over the people. The state government employees are preparing for a struggle. There is resentment among the peasants, workers, teachers and other sections of the society.

Rajnath Singh is cleverly playing the caste card also. The real motive for providing reservation within reservation is not to benefit those who could not benefit from reservations. Had it been so, this step would have been taken after consensus and more seriously. The manner the step was announced, and the eagerness to implement it before the elections, prove that the real motive is to shake the influence and base of the Samajwadi Party among these backward sections and, if possible, to win over some of them on the election eve. In order to achieve this, caste lunches and caste rallies have been organised across the state. Realising the role of the Jats and Gujar castes in the elections in western UP, Ajit Singh has been made cabinet minister in the Vajpayee government and probably secretly assured that his demand for a 'Harit Pardesh' will be fulfilled. In order to satisfy the Gujar caste, Hukam Singh is being projected as a front ranking leader. Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan are being used to woo the Yadavs and make a dent in the support base of the BSP, respectively.

Leaving nothing to chance, the BJP is also using its ultimate weapon --- of inciting communal passions and seeking to polarise the people along communal lines. Minorities --- Christians and Muslims --- are being attacked throughout the state by the Bajrang Dal and other saffron organisations. The role of PAC and state police has also been communal. An organised campaign is being conducted against the Muslims. Sometimes a cry is raised about the ISI activities in the state, sometimes the religious freedom of the Muslims is under attack, and sometimes the Muslims are terrorised by raising the bogey of Bangladeshi infiltrators. First a hate campaign was unleashed against the SIMI, led by front-ranking leaders like Kalraj Mishra, and then the ban on SIMI was used to portray all the Muslim youth as anti-national so as to turn the people against the Muslims. The ruling party even tried to portray the terrorist attacks on the USA and subsequent events in communal colours. From the top leaders to grass-roots workers, various organisations of the saffron brigade did not let go a single opportunity to humiliate the Muslim community. The prime minister, who represents Lucknow, described the Mandir movement as an expression of national feelings and declared that the dispute would be resolved before the UP elections.

The home minister of the country was proud to declare that the BJP achieved its present success due to the Ram Mandir campaign and that they would continue to raise this issue. Advani’s speech clearly pointed out that the BJP is still bent on using the temple issue and communal polarisation as a weapon in elections. Vandalism at the Taj Mahal and the VHP storming the disputed site were clearly aimed at terrorising the Muslims. It is a cleverly devised ploy --- in the hope that a wrong step by some elements under provocation would justify the saffron brigade’s attack on the minorities and provide a golden opportunity for communal polarisation.

Yet there are indications that the BJP has failed to bring about a qualitative difference in the situation in its favour. And that explains why its state government is shy of accepting the opposition challenge to call for elections immediately.