People's Democracy

Political Stalemate Continues in Italy

Yohannan Chemarapally

THE results of the general election held in Italy in the last week of February this year have further complicated the political situation in the country. Till the first week of April, no political party was able to form a government. Italy continues to be governed by a caretaker government.

CHANCE OF ANOTHER

POLL LOOMS LARGE

There was a three way split in votes --- between the centre left, the centre right, and a new anti-establishment 5 Star Movement (5SM) led by the comedian, Beppe Grillo. Though the centre left coalition won a wafer thin victory, getting 130,000 votes more that the centre right coalition in the elections to the lower house, no party is in a position to form a government for the time being. In the Senate (upper house), the centre left could get only 121 seats, closely followed by Berlusconi’s coalition which got 117 seats. The majority needed in the Senate is 158. In Italy, the upper and lower houses are equally powerful. In the parliament, the centre left will now have an absolute majority as Italian electoral law gives the strongest alliance 54 per cent of the seats in the lower house.

Many Italian political commentators are already predicting another election in the coming months to break the political deadlock the country finds itself in. According to the Italian constitution, a government has to be in place by early May. Otherwise new elections have to be called. The Italian president, Giorgio Napolitiano, who is retiring in April, is holding talks with all the major players in an effort to cobble up a coalition government.  

The election result in Europe’s third biggest economy is also a bad news for the beleaguered European Union (EU). Italy is facing big recession and a massive debt. Financial markets reacted adversely to the verdict. Italy’s economic crisis in 2011 was a major factor that triggered the crisis in the Euro zone. With the majority of voters reacting negatively to the EU supported economic programmes, the threat to the European unity has further increased.

The most surprising result of the election was the performance of Beppe Grillo’s party on its very first electoral debut. One out of every four Italians voted for the 5SM’s vitriolic anti-EU platform. The results were also a massive rejection of the austerity regime that was introduced by the technocrat prime minister, Mario Monti with the backing of international financial institutions. Monti’s policies were lauded in Washington and Berlin but were, as the results showed, very unpopular back home. In 2012, half a million Italians lost their jobs and average per capita income has now gone down to the levels that existed in the early nineties. The unemployment figure stands at 11.2 per cent today, up from 6.5 per cent in 2008.

RIGHT STRIVES

TO FORM GOVT

The centre left coalition led by the Democrats was generally supportive of Monti’s austerity policies. Right wing politicians like Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister, initially supported Monti but started getting more vocal about the widespread cuts in social spending and other austerity measures. Berlusconi had resigned from the prime minister’s post to make way for Monti in 2011. On the campaign trail, Berlusconi had promised to do away with the tough austerity measures the Italian government had introduced earlier with the support of his party. He even promised to repay the unpopular housing tax which the government had collected, if he became the prime minister again.

Also, the electorate did not take kindly to the open meddling from the EU headquarters in Brussels and from the German capital, Berlin. The German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble and the foreign minister Guido Westerwelle issued statements urging the Italians to vote for a pro-European course and the continuation of the austerity policies.

Grillo told the media, after the results were out, that his party had “decisively broken” the “corrupt old system.” The 5SM, similar in many respects to the anti-corruption movements in India like the Aam Aadmi Party, has no clear cut political ideology. Its attack was focussed mainly on the “corrupt political caste.” Most of the votes for the 5SM came from the younger generation of Italian voters. After the results were out, Grillo was quick to predict that neither the coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani of the Democratic Party nor the former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi would be able to “govern” Italy. Before the elections, he had ruled out the possibility of entering into a coalition with either the centre left or the centre right coalitions.  

Bersani, the Democratic Party leader, who started his career with the now disbanded Italian Communist Party, could thus be finally left with no other option but to try and cobble up a “grand coalition” with his arch-foe and the man he holds responsible for many of Italy’s current woes --- Silvio Berlusconi. Soon after the results were out, Berlusconi once again did a political somersault and called for a grand coalition with the Democratic Party. Bersani was quick to reject the offer at the time but many within his party are now demanding a “grand coalition” with Berlusconi to avoid yet another election and more political turmoil.

However, joining hands with the centre right would now be even more difficult following Berlusconi’s latest conviction. On March 6, an Italian court sentenced him to a year in prison over the publication of a leaked transcript that contained private conversation of the former leader of the Democrats, Piero Fassino, from a police wiretap in a publication which he owns. A verdict in the trial Berlusconi is facing for allegedly having sex with an under-aged prostitute is also expected.

MAJORITY OF ITALIANS

FED UP WITH AUSTERITY

Bersani had enjoyed a 10 per cent lead in the opinion polls and was considered a shoo-in for the top job till a few weeks before the elections. But the re-entry of Berlusconi into the fray and his shameless pandering to the electorate reeling under the austerity policies changed the equation. Berlusconi described Bersani as an “austerity communist” while campaigning. A significant section of the polarized electorate chose to gloss over many of his financial and sexual misdemeanours and flocked back to his tent. When Berlusconi went to cast his vote, three topless feminists confronted him with the slogan “Basta Berlusconi” (enough of Berlusconi) stamped on their bare backs.

Berlusconi’s vote tally coupled with that of the 5SM has shown that the overwhelming majority of the Italians are fed up with austerity and wants new policies implemented. The general reaction from western capitals and financial institutions after the election results were announced was that Italy could soon become “ungovernable.” Italy is the third largest economy after Germany and France in the Euro zone.

By the second week of March, there were indications that Grillo and the 5SM were softening their position on government formation. Grillo recently said that he would be willing to support a minority government led by Bersani on an issue to issue basis but his stated first preference is a government led by technocrats. Despite his targeting of the EU during the election campaign, Grillo is not totally against the continuation of the austerity measures. The programme of the 5SM had advocated a unilateral default of Italy’s public debt which today stands over two trillion dollars. Grillo recently told a German magazine that he is only against the scourge of the rising public debt and not against the Euro zone. During the campaign, he had demanded a referendum on the question of Italy continuing with the Euro as its currency. Last year, in an interview, he had described the euro as “a rope” that is tightening around the necks of the Italians.

The 5SM has not clearly spelt out its political platform. During the campaign, their attack was focussed on the professional politicians who have been dominating the Italian political scene. There was also an anti-immigrant streak in the rhetoric of Grillo, who drew huge crowds as he crisscrossed the country. The 5SM’s populist programme calls for nationalising of the banking sector, retaining public ownership of water and other natural resources, and guaranteeing a minimum wage for all Italian citizens. Non-Italians working in the country have been noticeably excluded from a guaranteed minimum wage. Many of the votes which would have otherwise gone to left wing parties went to the 5SM despite Grillo’s embrace of “ethical capitalism.”

Many of Grillo’s prominent supporters, like the popular left wing Nobel laureate, Dario Fo, have publicly urged that 5SM support a government led by the Democrats. More than 120,000 supporters of Grillo have signed an online petition urging him to cooperate with Bersani. After the election results were announced, Grillo had once again reiterated that he would not support the Democrats and had disparagingly described Bersani as “a dead man walking.” The 5SM which won votes mainly on anti-corruption and anti-austerity programme has not yet formulated a real plan of action to chart out the future course of Italy.

There is also a possibility that the outgoing prime minister, Mario Monti, may be given the task of running the government yet again, despite his miserable showing at the polls as head of a coalition led by the Christian Democrats. Before becoming the prime minster, Monti was the EU’s competition commissioner. Despite the backing of the EU and the Vatican, Monti’s centrist bloc got less than 10 per cent of the vote. The left wing parties which contested under the banner of the “Civil Revolution” coalition got only one per cent of the vote. As things stand now, all these parties will soon get an opportunity to once again face the voters in the not too distant future.